--- title: "Damascus case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Damascus ($119.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.57% from 30 items with odds, observed 105.47% over 45 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/damascus rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Damascus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/damascus) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Damascus A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/damascus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/damascus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/damascus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/damascus?window=all) Price · $119.99 Advertised RTP · 93.57% · EV $112.27 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 105.47% · 45 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 31.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 53.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 5 openings · below min 7 days · 45 openings · below min 30 days · 45 openings · below min since tracking started · 45 openings · below min 16.0% 72.0% 128.0% **Small sample.** 45 openings and 14.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/damascus?window=24h) | 5 | 72.22% ±55.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/damascus?window=7d) | 45 | 105.47% ±18.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/damascus) | 45 | 105.47% ±18.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/damascus?window=all) | 45 | 105.47% ±18.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,695 | $877 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 831 | $666 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 700 | $591 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 340 | $477 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 233 | $435 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 183 | $371 | 1.8% | 2 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $346 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $298 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $247 | 3.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $211 | 4.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $203 | 5.3% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.23× | | [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $172 | 5.2% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.54× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $158 | 7.7% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.18× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $147 | 7.0% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $139 | 8.4% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.28× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $133 | 9.8% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $131 | 8.0% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $97.78 | 3.6% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $79.12 | 2.9% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.58× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $71.38 | 2.6% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $67.33 | 2.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $58.49 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $57.25 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $56.24 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $56.01 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $53.35 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $51.80 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $50.51 | 1.9% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.58× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $44.47 | 1.6% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.58× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $43.10 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/damascus/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=damascus) [★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) [))](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%29%29) $120 $133 1.11x 2026-11-10 18:19 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [))](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%29%29) $120 $58.49 0.49x 2026-11-10 18:19 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-factory-new) [))](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%29%29) $120 $67.33 0.56x 2026-11-10 18:19 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) [))](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%29%29) $120 $43.10 0.36x 2026-11-10 18:19 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [))](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%29%29) $120 $131 1.09x 2026-11-10 18:19 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) [RSॐPhantomॐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/RS%E0%A5%90Phantom%E0%A5%90) $120 $53.35 0.44x 2026-11-09 20:07 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) [Phoenix](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Phoenix) $120 $371 3.09x 2026-11-09 04:22 UTC [★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $120 $172 1.43x 2026-11-08 21:07 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $120 $247 2.06x 2026-11-07 21:18 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) [+888](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%2B888) $120 $133 1.11x 2026-11-07 13:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $120 | 93.57% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $120 | 94.00% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 8.3% rare 6.5% covert 62.0% covert knife 11.7% epic 7.3% Covert 4.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.57 on average: an expected loss of $6.43 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt