---
title: "Dangerlyoha case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Dangerlyoha ($2.19) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.76% from 42 items with odds, observed 93.66% over 3,041 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerlyoha
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Dangerlyoha](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerlyoha)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Dangerlyoha

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerlyoha?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerlyoha?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerlyoha) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerlyoha?window=all)

Price · $2.19

Advertised RTP · 90.76% · EV $1.99 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.66% · 3,041 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 35.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 57.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.14% ±11.23 126 openings

7 days · 94.51% ±2.64 2,279 openings

30 days · 93.66% ±2.28 3,041 openings

since tracking started · 93.66% ±2.28 3,041 openings

78.5% 90.3% 102.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 91.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.38% – 95.94%, 3,041 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerlyoha?window=24h) | 126 | 90.14% ±11.2 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerlyoha?window=7d) | 2,279 | 94.51% ±2.64 | +2.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerlyoha) | 3,041 | 93.66% ±2.28 | +2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerlyoha?window=all) | 3,041 | 93.66% ±2.28 | +2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,041 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $131 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $92.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500,000 | $74.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $51.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 3,401 | $35.27 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 47,619 | $32.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22,222 | $26.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,536 | $22.09 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,527 | $13.73 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 684 | $11.21 | 0.8% | 8 | 4.4 | 1.80× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 312 | $9.17 | 1.5% | 15 | 9.8 | 1.54× |
| [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-minimal-wear) | 1 in 278 | $7.19 | 1.3% | 19 | 10.9 | 1.74× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $5.66 | 2.3% | 31 | 24.8 | 1.25× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 192 | $5.26 | 1.4% | 22 | 15.8 | 1.39× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $4.31 | 2.7% | 32 | 38.0 | 0.84× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $3.90 | 3.2% | 56 | 49.2 | 1.14× |
| [P250 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $3.76 | 4.6% | 81 | 73.5 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $3.09 | 6.9% | 115 | 135.2 | 0.85× |
| [XM1014 \| Urban Perforated (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-urban-perforated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $2.99 | 3.3% | 73 | 66.0 | 1.11× |
| [MP5-SD \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.85 | 5.9% | 110 | 125.0 | 0.88× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.45 | 6.3% | 166 | 156.3 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.45 | 6.3% | 150 | 154.9 | 0.97× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $2.28 | 7.7% | 241 | 204.1 | 1.18× |
| [MAG-7 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $2.22 | 8.2% | 237 | 222.1 | 1.07× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.15 | 6.5% | 185 | 183.1 | 1.01× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.08 | 7.8% | 228 | 227.0 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.65 | 4.3% | 139 | 155.8 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.64 | 3.8% | 120 | 139.2 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.32 | 2.8% | 116 | 127.3 | 0.91× |
| [Tec-9 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.04 | 2.0% | 102 | 115.1 | 0.89× |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.97 | 1.6% | 91 | 98.6 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $0.95 | 1.5% | 98 | 97.8 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $0.89 | 1.1% | 73 | 72.1 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Urban Dashed (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $0.86 | 1.2% | 78 | 84.0 | 0.93× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Drift Wood (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-drift-wood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $0.82 | 1.1% | 89 | 78.9 | 1.13× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.58 | 0.7% | 81 | 69.5 | 1.17× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $0.56 | 0.6% | 72 | 66.9 | 1.08× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $0.53 | 0.5% | 45 | 54.3 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.44 | 0.4% | 46 | 51.5 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $0.39 | 0.3% | 43 | 42.8 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $0.35 | 0.3% | 42 | 45.7 | 0.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $0.30 | 0.2% | 34 | 37.9 | 0.90× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/dangerlyoha/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=dangerlyoha)

[Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $2.19 $2.28 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[XM1014 | Urban Perforated (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-urban-perforated-minimal-wear) [October's Very Own](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/October's%20Very%20Own) $2.19 $2.99 1.37x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) [Бобр жора](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%80%20%D0%B6%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0) $2.19 $2.15 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) [Владимир Путин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9F%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD) $2.19 $2.15 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC

[UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-factory-new) [bogsuleimanov08](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bogsuleimanov08) $2.19 $0.89 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-factory-new) [bogsuleimanov08](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bogsuleimanov08) $2.19 $0.86 0.39x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[MAG-7 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) [bogsuleimanov08](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bogsuleimanov08) $2.19 $2.22 1.01x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) [bogsuleimanov08](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bogsuleimanov08) $2.19 $2.15 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) [bogsuleimanov08](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bogsuleimanov08) $2.19 $3.09 1.41x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-factory-new) [bogsuleimanov08](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bogsuleimanov08) $2.19 $0.89 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.19 | 90.76% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.19 | 92.04% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 5.1% covert 0.0% covert knife 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 19.7% industrial 7.6% classified 0.8% #8847ff 6.1% blueLight 0.4% #4b69ff 7.2% other 1.3% mil spec 4.8% Uncommon 11.1% consumer 8.3% Industrial Grade 7.3% Restricted 5.1% Rare 10.1% Consumer Grade 2.8% milspec 2.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.76 on average: an expected loss of $9.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt