---
title: "Dangerzone case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dangerzone ($2.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.39% from 36 items with odds, observed 88.54% over 107 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerzone
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Dangerzone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerzone)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Dangerzone

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerzone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerzone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerzone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerzone?window=all)

Price · $2.99

Advertised RTP · 89.39% · EV $2.67 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.54% · 107 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 28 openings · below min

7 days · 88.54% ±15.19 107 openings

30 days · 88.54% ±15.19 107 openings

since tracking started · 88.54% ±15.19 107 openings

39.5% 72.0% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerzone?window=24h) | 28 | 69.67% ±29.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerzone?window=7d) | 107 | 88.54% ±15.2 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerzone) | 107 | 88.54% ±15.2 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dangerzone?window=all) | 107 | 88.54% ±15.2 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 162 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $450 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $269 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $198 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $150 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $92.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71,429 | $71.36 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 11,364 | $43.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 11,236 | $42.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 10,417 | $42.54 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 10,526 | $40.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 2,110 | $23.40 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 172 | $12.05 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $9.03 | 3.6% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $8.04 | 4.2% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.89× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $6.00 | 6.9% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.23 | 7.8% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.24× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $4.77 | 10.1% | 10 | 9.2 | 1.09× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $4.72 | 8.1% | 10 | 7.4 | 1.35× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.59 | 8.5% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $4.57 | 8.3% | 5 | 7.9 | 0.63× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $4.21 | 10.4% | 9 | 10.7 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $2.44 | 3.8% | 12 | 6.8 | 1.76× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $2.20 | 3.5% | 2 | 6.8 | 0.29× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.98 | 3.1% | 10 | 6.8 | 1.47× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.73 | 2.7% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.70 | 2.7% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.32× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.38 | 2.2% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.24 | 2.0% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.98 | 1.5% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.32× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.95 | 1.5% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.75 | 1.2% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.73× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.60 | 0.9% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.73× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.60 | 0.9% | 12 | 6.8 | 1.76× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.59 | 0.9% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.48 | 0.8% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.73× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.39 | 0.6% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/dangerzone/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=dangerzone)

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.99 $1.38 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[UMP-45 | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $2.99 $4.72 1.58x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $1.98 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $1.98 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $1.38 0.46x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $1.70 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $1.38 0.46x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $0.60 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $4.59 1.54x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[UMP-45 | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $2.99 $4.72 1.58x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.99 | 89.39% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.99 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% rare 0.0% covert knife 0.0% gold 0.0% Immortal 0.0% classified 10.1% mil spec 27.4% Legendary 9.5% restricted 44.5% Rare 4.2% blue 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.39 on average: an expected loss of $10.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt