---
title: "Deadhand case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Deadhand ($1.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.54% from 36 items with odds, observed 99.33% over 577 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deadhand
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Deadhand](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deadhand)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Deadhand

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deadhand?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deadhand?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deadhand) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deadhand?window=all)

Price · $1.49

Advertised RTP · 95.54% · EV $1.42 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.33% · 577 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 53.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 110.04% ±16.88 174 openings

7 days · 99.33% ±9.27 577 openings

30 days · 99.33% ±9.27 577 openings

since tracking started · 99.33% ±9.27 577 openings

89.5% 108.5% 127.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deadhand?window=24h) | 174 | 110.04% ±16.9 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deadhand?window=7d) | 577 | 99.33% ±9.27 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deadhand) | 577 | 99.33% ±9.27 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deadhand?window=all) | 577 | 99.33% ±9.27 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 923 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $218 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-seigaiha-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,667 | $161 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83,333 | $105 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 27,778 | $54.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) | 1 in 29,412 | $52.79 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-factory-new) | 1 in 23,256 | $49.98 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,215 | $23.68 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,519 | $20.18 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 775 | $13.47 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.68× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 389 | $10.90 | 2.0% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.69× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 396 | $10.14 | 1.8% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $6.06 | 3.5% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $5.57 | 3.7% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.58× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $4.89 | 3.9% | 11 | 10.4 | 1.06× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Factory New) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $3.65 | 4.8% | 14 | 17.3 | 0.81× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $3.50 | 5.0% | 20 | 18.8 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Galigator (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.50 | 4.9% | 16 | 18.3 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.24 | 6.8% | 35 | 39.7 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.85 | 8.0% | 52 | 56.5 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.67 | 8.6% | 84 | 67.7 | 1.24× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.66 | 8.1% | 76 | 64.4 | 1.18× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.64 | 9.1% | 63 | 72.8 | 0.87× |
| [Galil AR \| Galigator (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.55 | 4.5% | 47 | 38.2 | 1.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.13 | 3.3% | 47 | 38.2 | 1.23× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.87 | 2.5% | 39 | 38.2 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.84 | 2.4% | 30 | 38.2 | 0.79× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.80 | 2.3% | 40 | 38.2 | 1.05× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.74 | 2.1% | 33 | 38.2 | 0.86× |
| [M249 \| Bock Blocks (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-bock-blocks-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.63 | 1.8% | 40 | 38.2 | 1.05× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.61 | 1.8% | 34 | 38.2 | 0.89× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Fusion (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-fusion-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.61 | 1.8% | 38 | 38.2 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.54 | 1.6% | 37 | 38.2 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.31 | 0.9% | 35 | 38.2 | 0.92× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.24 | 0.7% | 37 | 38.2 | 0.97× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.22 | 0.6% | 41 | 38.2 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.22 | 0.6% | 31 | 38.2 | 0.81× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/deadhand/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=deadhand)

[P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $1.49 $10.14 6.81x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $1.49 $1.66 1.11x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC

[USP-S | Silent Shot (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-factory-new) [wwwwwwwwwwww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/wwwwwwwwwwww) $1.49 $1.67 1.12x 2026-11-11 08:14 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-minimal-wear) [wwwwwwwwwwww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/wwwwwwwwwwww) $1.49 $0.24 0.16x 2026-11-11 08:13 UTC

[USP-S | Silent Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-minimal-wear) [wwwwwwwwwwww](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/wwwwwwwwwwww) $1.49 $0.54 0.36x 2026-11-11 08:13 UTC

[USP-S | Silent Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) [ORANGE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ORANGE) $1.49 $0.31 0.21x 2026-11-11 07:51 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) [ORANGE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ORANGE) $1.49 $1.85 1.24x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-factory-new) [ORANGE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ORANGE) $1.49 $0.61 0.41x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) [ORANGE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ORANGE) $1.49 $1.66 1.11x 2026-11-11 07:49 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-factory-new) [ORANGE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ORANGE) $1.49 $0.74 0.50x 2026-11-11 07:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.49 | 95.54% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.49 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 1.9% Ancient 0.0% epic 0.0% rare 0.0% red 0.0% Legendary 0.0% pink 1.6% Mythical 6.9% uncommon 5.4% violet 9.0% #8847ff 18.1% Rare 7.3% restricted 4.1% blue 20.7% milspec 20.7% #4b69ff 4.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.54 on average: an expected loss of $4.46 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt