---
title: "Deathnote case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Deathnote ($42.42) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.99% from 42 items with odds, observed 55.04% over 11 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deathnote
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Deathnote](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deathnote)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Deathnote

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deathnote?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deathnote?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deathnote) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deathnote?window=all)

Price · $42.42

Advertised RTP · 93.99% · EV $39.87 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 55.04% · 11 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 10 openings · below min

30 days · 11 openings · below min

since tracking started · 11 openings · below min

-0.5% 69.0% 138.5%

**Small sample.** 11 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deathnote?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deathnote?window=7d) | 10 | 57.46% ±80.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deathnote) | 11 | 55.04% ±76.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/deathnote?window=all) | 11 | 55.04% ±76.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $14.5K | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $11.3K | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $5,910 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 250,000 | $5,290 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,943 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83,333 | $2,570 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 45,455 | $1,695 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,641 | $1,590 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 25,641 | $1,452 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 10,309 | $1,067 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,264 | $952 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,125 | $599 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 2,033 | $553 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 745 | $354 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-battle-scarred) | 1 in 476 | $322 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 228 | $251 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) | 1 in 166 | $188 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $179 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-violet-beadwork-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $168 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 97 | $145 | 3.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $131 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $117 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $99.58 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $75.20 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $72.50 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $69.84 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $52.79 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $50.22 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $45.93 | 7.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $39.77 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $28.44 | 4.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $27.76 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $20.72 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Hades (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $13.50 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $11.62 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $9.58 | 1.2% | 3 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $8.64 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $6.60 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.78 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $5.74 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $3.39 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $2.77 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/deathnote/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=deathnote)

[★ Stiletto Knife | Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-well-worn) [supa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/supa) $43.83 $145 3.31x 2026-11-05 05:04 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) [supa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/supa) $43.83 $28.44 0.65x 2026-11-05 05:04 UTC

[MP9 | Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $43.83 $5.74 0.13x 2026-11-04 20:52 UTC

[SSG 08 | Parallax (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-minimal-wear) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $43.83 $9.58 0.22x 2026-11-04 20:52 UTC

[MP9 | Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $43.83 $5.74 0.13x 2026-11-04 20:52 UTC

[Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-well-worn) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $43.83 $20.72 0.47x 2026-11-04 20:52 UTC

[SSG 08 | Parallax (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-minimal-wear) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $43.83 $9.58 0.22x 2026-11-04 20:52 UTC

[Nova | Bloomstick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-battle-scarred) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $43.83 $11.62 0.27x 2026-11-04 20:52 UTC

[SSG 08 | Parallax (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-minimal-wear) [Hssgsggse](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hssgsggse) $43.83 $9.58 0.22x 2026-11-04 20:52 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $43.83 $5.78 0.13x 2026-11-04 15:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $42.42 | 93.99% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $43.83 | 90.96% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $43.83 | 92.92% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.3% legendary 0.0% Covert 0.0% extraordinary 3.7% gold 3.6% rare 11.4% #ffd700 0.7% covert knife 11.0% sunny 3.1% red 12.3% Restricted 7.1% classified 14.9% Industrial Grade 5.3% violet 4.9% restricted 8.1% #d32ce6 4.2% pink 4.0% #8847ff 3.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.99 on average: an expected loss of $6.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt