---
title: "Demonslayer case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Demonslayer ($1.15) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.49% from 42 items with odds, observed 91.62% over 1,382 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/demonslayer
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Demonslayer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/demonslayer)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Demonslayer

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/demonslayer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/demonslayer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/demonslayer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/demonslayer?window=all)

Price · $1.15

Advertised RTP · 93.49% · EV $1.08 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.62% · 1,382 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.75% ±19.62 168 openings

7 days · 87.41% ±8.70 845 openings

30 days · 91.62% ±6.78 1,382 openings

since tracking started · 91.62% ±6.78 1,382 openings

63.5% 83.8% 104.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/demonslayer?window=24h) | 168 | 83.75% ±19.6 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/demonslayer?window=7d) | 845 | 87.41% ±8.70 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/demonslayer) | 1,382 | 91.62% ±6.78 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/demonslayer?window=all) | 1,382 | 91.62% ±6.78 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,382 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Battle-Scarred) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $627 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-big-swell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $379 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $232 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $90.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $60.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66,667 | $50.23 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22,222 | $33.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14,085 | $29.58 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 6,623 | $22.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,369 | $17.79 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 3,049 | $14.72 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 1,908 | $12.83 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 2,151 | $12.68 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,063 | $10.60 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 404 | $6.92 | 1.6% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 281 | $6.53 | 2.2% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.42× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-factory-new) | 1 in 426 | $5.65 | 1.2% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) | 1 in 205 | $5.27 | 2.4% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-well-worn) | 1 in 193 | $4.97 | 2.4% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $4.11 | 3.4% | 13 | 12.4 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $3.70 | 2.9% | 9 | 11.6 | 0.78× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $3.39 | 2.8% | 14 | 12.3 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $2.90 | 4.0% | 14 | 20.7 | 0.68× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $2.89 | 3.8% | 23 | 19.8 | 1.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $2.75 | 3.2% | 24 | 17.0 | 1.41× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $2.01 | 3.2% | 21 | 23.6 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.90 | 5.3% | 42 | 41.1 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1.54 | 4.8% | 56 | 46.6 | 1.20× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.35 | 5.5% | 65 | 60.3 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.32 | 5.9% | 60 | 66.4 | 0.90× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.30 | 5.5% | 55 | 63.2 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.08 | 5.1% | 72 | 69.8 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-plastique-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.90 | 4.8% | 72 | 79.6 | 0.90× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.85 | 4.8% | 96 | 83.3 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.78 | 4.3% | 83 | 81.2 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.71 | 4.0% | 80 | 83.8 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Off World (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-off-world-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.61 | 3.4% | 85 | 83.5 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.52 | 3.0% | 96 | 85.9 | 1.12× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.47 | 2.8% | 85 | 87.5 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.35 | 2.2% | 75 | 91.7 | 0.82× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.17 | 1.2% | 106 | 100.6 | 1.05× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.09 | 0.7% | 108 | 110.7 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/demonslayer/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=demonslayer)

[Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-minimal-wear) [cloudch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cloudch) $1.15 $0.47 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-field-tested) [cloudch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cloudch) $1.15 $0.17 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) [cloudch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cloudch) $1.15 $0.71 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-minimal-wear) [cloudch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cloudch) $1.15 $0.09 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-field-tested) [cloudch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cloudch) $1.15 $0.17 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Nova | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.15 $12.68 11.03x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.15 $0.52 0.45x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC

[Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-minimal-wear) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.15 $0.47 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-factory-new) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.15 $1.08 0.94x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC

[MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-well-worn) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.15 $0.85 0.74x 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.15 | 93.49% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.17 | 91.89% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.17 | 93.17% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.0% covert knife 0.0% red 0.0% restricted 25.8% Legendary 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% classified 1.9% #d32ee6 0.2% Classified 0.4% violet 13.6% Mythical 7.3% blue 14.8% #8847ff 4.4% Restricted 5.8% milspec 12.4% Rare 6.2% #4b69ff 7.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.49 on average: an expected loss of $6.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt