---
title: "Diamond case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Diamond ($619.43) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.75% from 21 items with odds, observed 82.27% over 87 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diamond
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Diamond](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diamond)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Diamond

A case on CSGORUN (vipcases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diamond?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diamond?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diamond) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diamond?window=all)

Price · $619.43

Advertised RTP · 90.75% · EV $562.13 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.27% · 87 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 10 openings · below min

7 days · 87 openings · below min

30 days · 87 openings · below min

since tracking started · 87 openings · below min

37.0% 100.3% 163.5%

**Small sample.** 87 openings and 17.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diamond?window=24h) | 10 | 100.46% ±62.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diamond?window=7d) | 87 | 82.27% ±21.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diamond) | 87 | 82.27% ±21.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diamond?window=all) | 87 | 82.27% ±21.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,686 | $8,522 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,242 | $7,283 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 125 | $3,126 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 146 | $3,100 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $2,218 | 5.0% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.64× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $2,171 | 5.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $1,695 | 5.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.26× |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $1,382 | 6.9% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $1,331 | 7.5% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $1,265 | 6.1% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $911 | 8.2% | 0 | 4.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 10.2% | $545 | 9.9% | 7 | 8.8 | 0.79× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $477 | 8.4% | 12 | 8.6 | 1.40× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $435 | 7.4% | 3 | 8.3 | 0.36× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $379 | 6.1% | 12 | 7.9 | 1.53× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $287 | 4.2% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $208 | 2.8% | 11 | 6.6 | 1.67× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $165 | 2.0% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.16× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-red-racer-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $138 | 1.6% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.26× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $133 | 1.5% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.25× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $108 | 1.1% | 2 | 5.1 | 0.39× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/diamond/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $619 $2,218 3.58x 2026-11-04 22:55 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $619 $2,218 3.58x 2026-11-04 16:52 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $619 $2,218 3.58x 2026-11-04 16:51 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $619 $2,218 3.58x 2026-11-04 16:50 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $1,695 2.74x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $619 $1,695 2.74x 2026-11-04 16:50 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $1,382 2.23x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $619 $1,382 2.23x 2026-11-04 16:52 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $619 $1,382 2.23x 2026-11-04 16:50 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $1,331 2.15x 2026-11-10 17:19 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=diamond)

[★ Talon Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $287 0.46x 2026-11-10 17:22 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $379 0.61x 2026-11-10 17:22 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $287 0.46x 2026-11-10 17:22 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-red-racer-field-tested) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $138 0.22x 2026-11-10 17:22 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $1,382 2.23x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $379 0.61x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-red-racer-field-tested) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $138 0.22x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $1,695 2.74x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $208 0.34x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $619 $1,331 2.15x 2026-11-10 17:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $619 | 90.75% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $619 | 90.12% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 45.6% extraordinary 9.1% legendary 1.8% classified 13.0% Covert 3.2% sunny 5.0% covert knife 15.9% epic 6.4% best hit $2,218 (3.58x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.75 on average: an expected loss of $9.25 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt