---
title: "Diesel fuel case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Diesel fuel ($0.46) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.97% from 42 items with odds, observed 94.83% over 4,893 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diesel-fuel
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Diesel fuel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diesel-fuel)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Diesel fuel

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diesel-fuel?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diesel-fuel?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diesel-fuel) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diesel-fuel?window=all)

Price · $0.46

Advertised RTP · 91.97% · EV $0.42 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.83% · 4,893 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.50% ±33.38 121 openings

7 days · 93.82% ±6.28 3,419 openings

30 days · 94.83% ±5.26 4,893 openings

since tracking started · 94.83% ±5.26 4,893 openings

63.5% 97.5% 131.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diesel-fuel?window=24h) | 121 | 97.50% ±33.4 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diesel-fuel?window=7d) | 3,419 | 93.82% ±6.28 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diesel-fuel) | 4,893 | 94.83% ±5.26 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/diesel-fuel?window=all) | 4,893 | 94.83% ±5.26 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,908 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $460 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $304 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $244 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $189 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $176 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $129 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Chocolate Chesterfield (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-chocolate-chesterfield-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $87.62 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $85.13 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $66.36 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125,000 | $30.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $22.98 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $20.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 15,625 | $12.81 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 13,158 | $11.37 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-factory-new) | 1 in 3,831 | $7.61 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 2,660 | $6.13 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 1,462 | $5.15 | 0.8% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.79× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 1,684 | $5.13 | 0.7% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,166 | $4.38 | 0.9% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Factory New) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-factory-new) | 1 in 640 | $3.65 | 1.3% | 10 | 7.7 | 1.30× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-factory-new) | 1 in 557 | $3.43 | 1.5% | 13 | 8.8 | 1.48× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 455 | $3.13 | 1.6% | 13 | 10.8 | 1.21× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 238 | $2.69 | 2.7% | 19 | 20.7 | 0.92× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $1.39 | 4.0% | 58 | 59.5 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $1.18 | 3.7% | 83 | 64.7 | 1.28× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $1.13 | 5.1% | 104 | 94.3 | 1.10× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $1.13 | 4.7% | 96 | 86.0 | 1.12× |
| [Sticker \| ZywOo (Holo) \| Budapest 2025 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zywoo-holo-budapest-2025) | 1 in 55 | $0.98 | 4.2% | 86 | 88.6 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.87 | 5.7% | 143 | 136.3 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $0.80 | 6.1% | 165 | 157.5 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.72 | 6.6% | 199 | 189.1 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.67 | 4.7% | 131 | 144.8 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.62 | 5.9% | 186 | 198.7 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.37 | 6.3% | 337 | 352.7 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.35 | 6.1% | 369 | 359.7 | 1.03× |
| [G3SG1 \| Ventilator (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.31 | 5.3% | 346 | 355.0 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.23 | 4.5% | 370 | 406.4 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.23 | 4.3% | 376 | 389.8 | 0.96× |
| [MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.18 | 3.5% | 423 | 401.9 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| FURIA (Foil) \| Austin 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-furia-foil-austin-2025) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 2.7% | 467 | 464.4 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 2.6% | 444 | 455.7 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-snow-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 2.5% | 452 | 440.4 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/diesel_fuel/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=diesel-fuel)

[USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) [DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DK) $0.46 $0.67 1.46x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-well-worn) [DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DK) $0.46 $0.80 1.74x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) [DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DK) $0.46 $1.39 3.02x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-factory-new) [DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DK) $0.46 $1.39 3.02x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-well-worn) [DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DK) $0.46 $0.12 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) [DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DK) $0.46 $0.23 0.50x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) [DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DK) $0.46 $0.23 0.50x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-minimal-wear) [DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DK) $0.46 $0.37 0.80x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[Sticker | FURIA (Foil) | Austin 2025 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-furia-foil-austin-2025) [DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DK) $0.46 $0.12 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-battle-scarred) [DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DK) $0.46 $0.72 1.57x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.46 | 91.97% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.46 | 92.95% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 0.2% covert 0.0% legendary 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% rare 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% sunny 0.0% Immortal 0.0% red 0.0% pink 0.2% Legendary 1.9% Mythical 0.1% uncommon 0.1% violet 13.8% Mil Spec Grade 0.4% #4b69ff 12.4% #8847ff 1.9% restricted 6.6% mil spec 2.9% milspec 7.2% Rare 16.2% #5e98d9 8.2% other 9.5% industrial 9.3% Uncommon 9.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.97 on average: an expected loss of $8.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt