---
title: "Doplercase case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Doplercase ($85.74) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 47 items with odds, observed 63.19% over 37 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doplercase
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Doplercase](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doplercase)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Doplercase

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doplercase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doplercase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doplercase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doplercase?window=all)

Price · $85.74

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $80.59 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 63.19% · 37 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 35 openings · below min

30 days · 37 openings · below min

since tracking started · 37 openings · below min

15.5% 63.8% 112.0%

**Small sample.** 37 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doplercase?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doplercase?window=7d) | 35 | 63.70% ±47.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doplercase) | 37 | 63.19% ±46.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doplercase?window=all) | 37 | 63.19% ±46.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200,000 | $8,814 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 83,333 | $5,485 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 40,000 | $3,591 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17,544 | $2,255 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,417 | $1,944 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,417 | $1,732 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 9,174 | $1,637 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 3,731 | $1,223 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,802 | $989 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,049 | $968 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,942 | $913 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,976 | $895 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,460 | $848 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 726 | $718 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,160 | $705 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 610 | $629 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 465 | $602 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 605 | $590 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 421 | $522 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 431 | $517 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 374 | $511 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 425 | $509 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 294 | $503 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 421 | $467 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 329 | $465 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 322 | $461 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 243 | $454 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 256 | $415 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 181 | $364 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 194 | $359 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $285 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $257 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 98 | $232 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $227 | 3.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $189 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $171 | 3.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $125 | 3.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $119 | 4.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $95.71 | 5.8% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $93.15 | 5.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $92.18 | 5.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $69.74 | 5.1% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [Sticker \| Doppler Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-doppler-poison-frog-foil) | 1 in 11 | $35.09 | 3.9% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.52× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 10.2% | $28.46 | 3.6% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.33× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 11.9% | $26.67 | 3.9% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.59× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 10.9% | $25.48 | 3.5% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) | 20.2% | $10.03 | 2.5% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.94× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/doplercase/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=doplercase)

[Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) [Fear is Near](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fear%20is%20Near) $88.73 $28.46 0.32x 2026-11-05 18:07 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) [0VE4K1N8](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/0VE4K1N8) $88.73 $28.46 0.32x 2026-11-05 12:47 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) [Пистолик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $88.73 $28.46 0.32x 2026-11-04 21:38 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-minimal-wear) [Пистолик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $88.73 $92.18 1.04x 2026-11-04 21:37 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) [Пистолик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $88.73 $10.03 0.11x 2026-11-04 21:37 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) [Пистолик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $88.73 $26.67 0.30x 2026-11-04 21:37 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) [Пистолик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $88.73 $10.03 0.11x 2026-11-04 21:37 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [Пистолик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $88.73 $93.15 1.05x 2026-11-04 21:37 UTC

[Sticker | Doppler Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-doppler-poison-frog-foil) [Пистолик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $88.73 $35.09 0.40x 2026-11-04 21:37 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) [Пистолик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $88.73 $25.48 0.29x 2026-11-04 21:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $85.74 | 94.00% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $88.73 | 90.83% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $88.73 | 91.77% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.0% Covert 2.3% gold 0.3% #ffd700 0.9% covert knife 5.6% sunny 3.4% #EB4B4B 0.9% rare 1.6% classified 4.9% red 4.5% mil spec 26.8% #eb4b4b 5.9% exotic 8.9% restricted 10.9% Mythical 20.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt