--- title: "Doppler case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Doppler ($394.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.74% from 30 items with odds, observed 84.88% over 45 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doppler rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Doppler](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doppler) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Doppler A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doppler?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doppler?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doppler) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doppler?window=all) Price · $394.99 Advertised RTP · 92.74% · EV $366.31 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.88% · 45 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 54.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 45 openings · below min 30 days · 45 openings · below min since tracking started · 45 openings · below min 61.5% 84.8% 108.0% **Small sample.** 45 openings and 13.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doppler?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doppler?window=7d) | 45 | 84.88% ±22.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doppler) | 45 | 84.88% ±22.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/doppler?window=all) | 45 | 84.88% ±22.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 4,310 | $4,349 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,429 | $3,591 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,075 | $2,943 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 518 | $2,590 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 280 | $1,765 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · #ffd700 · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 194 | $1,551 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 135 | $1,244 | 2.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 91 | $1,137 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $911 | 3.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $848 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $718 | 5.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $629 | 6.0% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.52× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 21 | $542 | 6.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $503 | 9.1% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $461 | 7.4% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 13 | $426 | 8.9% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $415 | 9.3% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.63× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $364 | 4.2% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $289 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $244 | 2.8% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.13× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $231 | 2.6% | 6 | 1.9 | 3.19× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 24 | $183 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $171 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $126 | 1.4% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 24 | $120 | 1.4% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $119 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 24 | $114 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 24 | $112 | 1.3% | 5 | 1.9 | 2.66× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $111 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 24 | $111 | 1.3% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.59× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/doppler/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $1,244 3.15x 2026-11-06 14:09 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $911 2.31x 2026-11-07 19:06 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $848 2.15x 2026-11-06 19:09 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $629 1.59x 2026-11-06 19:09 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $629 1.59x 2026-11-06 19:09 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $629 1.59x 2026-11-06 14:10 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $629 1.59x 2026-11-06 14:09 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $542 1.37x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $542 1.37x 2026-11-07 19:06 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $503 1.27x 2026-11-07 19:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=doppler) [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $112 0.28x 2026-11-07 19:14 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $415 1.05x 2026-11-07 19:13 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $231 0.59x 2026-11-07 19:12 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $426 1.08x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $114 0.29x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $111 0.28x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $231 0.59x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $542 1.37x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $120 0.30x 2026-11-07 19:08 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $395 $112 0.28x 2026-11-07 19:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $395 | 92.74% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $395 | 94.00% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 35.7% Covert 21.0% #ffd700 4.7% sunny 17.6% covert knife 21.1% best hit $1,244 (3.15x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.74 on average: an expected loss of $7.26 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt