---
title: "Double case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Double ($6.65) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.88% from 42 items with odds, observed 80.91% over 145 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/double
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Double](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/double)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Double

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/double?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/double?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/double) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/double?window=all)

Price · $6.65

Advertised RTP · 93.88% · EV $6.24 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.91% · 145 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 54 openings · below min

30 days · 80.91% ±32.29 145 openings

since tracking started · 80.91% ±32.29 145 openings

9.0% 62.8% 116.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/double?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/double?window=7d) | 54 | 62.95% ±53.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/double) | 145 | 80.91% ±32.3 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/double?window=all) | 145 | 80.91% ±32.3 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 145 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,283 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,100 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $2,370 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $1,236 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $1,163 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $1,114 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 52,632 | $642 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-factory-new) | 1 in 40,000 | $544 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,774 | $120 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $118 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,984 | $113 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-well-worn) | 1 in 2,591 | $106 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,717 | $102 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 1,996 | $90.55 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 1,721 | $87.20 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $17.61 | 4.4% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-antique-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $17.41 | 5.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $16.04 | 6.1% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $15.04 | 7.5% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $14.48 | 6.0% | 7 | 3.7 | 1.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $14.29 | 7.8% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $13.67 | 7.6% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.20× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $13.48 | 7.3% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $13.01 | 7.3% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $11.48 | 8.1% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $11.34 | 7.9% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.80× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $10.20 | 8.1% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.69× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $5.74 | 9.0% | 11 | 14.2 | 0.78× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.55 | 0.4% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.43 | 0.3% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.42 | 0.3% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.64× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.40 | 0.3% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.31 | 0.2% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.67× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.26 | 0.2% | 9 | 5.5 | 1.63× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Red Wing (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-red-wing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $0.18 | 0.1% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.16 | 0.1% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.44× |
| [XM1014 \| XoooM (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xooom-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $0.13 | 0.1% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.34× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.10 | 0.0% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.46× |
| [MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 7 | 3.8 | 1.84× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Fusion (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-fusion-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $0.07 | 0.0% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/double/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=double)

[Sawed-Off | Fusion (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-fusion-well-worn) [Zlodemon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Zlodemon) $6.65 $0.07 0.01x 2026-11-10 09:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-red-wing-battle-scarred) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $6.65 $0.18 0.03x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $6.65 $0.10 0.02x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $6.65 $0.26 0.04x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Fusion (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-fusion-well-worn) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $6.65 $0.07 0.01x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $6.65 $13.48 2.03x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-well-worn) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $6.65 $0.19 0.03x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xooom-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $6.65 $0.13 0.02x 2026-11-08 17:15 UTC

[MP9 | Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $6.65 $5.74 0.86x 2026-11-08 17:14 UTC

[MP9 | Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) [karch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karch) $6.65 $5.74 0.86x 2026-11-08 09:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $6.65 | 93.88% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $6.78 | 92.08% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.78 | 94.06% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% legendary 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% covert knife 0.0% sunny 0.0% classified 28.2% #d32ee6 2.4% restricted 2.6% Legendary 7.8% Mythical 3.5% uncommon 4.3% violet 13.7% #8847ff 4.3% Uncommon 7.2% #4b69ff 9.9% Rare 3.6% milspec 9.6% blue 2.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.88 on average: an expected loss of $6.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt