---
title: "Dreams case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dreams ($3.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.25% from 40 items with odds, observed 95.57% over 124 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dreams
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Dreams](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dreams)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Dreams

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dreams?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dreams?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dreams) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dreams?window=all)

Price · $3.99

Advertised RTP · 93.25% · EV $3.72 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.57% · 124 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 124 openings · below min

30 days · 124 openings · below min

since tracking started · 124 openings · below min

41.0% 90.8% 140.5%

**Small sample.** 124 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dreams?window=24h) | 12 | 90.71% ±49.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dreams?window=7d) | 124 | 95.57% ±13.7 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dreams) | 124 | 95.57% ±13.7 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dreams?window=all) | 124 | 95.57% ±13.7 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 124 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,732 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $478 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $284 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $215 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $157 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $107 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $82.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 25,641 | $62.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 7,813 | $46.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 7,353 | $45.91 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,993 | $42.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,173 | $40.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 288 | $16.49 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 181 | $13.52 | 2.0% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 97 | $10.24 | 2.8% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.34× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $9.09 | 4.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $7.56 | 5.4% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.53× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $6.84 | 6.2% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $6.44 | 7.6% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.55× |
| [Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $6.29 | 7.8% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.52× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $6.24 | 6.9% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $6.11 | 7.2% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.92× |
| [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $5.27 | 9.6% | 4 | 8.4 | 0.48× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.05 | 9.5% | 13 | 8.6 | 1.51× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $4.75 | 10.6% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $2.77 | 2.5% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $2.37 | 2.2% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $2.01 | 1.8% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1.87 | 1.7% | 8 | 4.2 | 1.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1.85 | 1.7% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $1.44 | 1.3% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1.37 | 1.2% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1.25 | 1.1% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.87 | 0.8% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.82 | 0.7% | 8 | 4.2 | 1.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.78 | 0.7% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.68 | 0.6% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.60 | 0.5% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $0.58 | 0.5% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.43× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $0.54 | 0.5% | 0 | 4.2 | 0.00× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/dreams/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=dreams)

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $3.99 $2.01 0.50x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $3.99 $10.24 2.57x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $3.99 $1.85 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $3.99 $2.01 0.50x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $3.99 $4.75 1.19x 2026-11-11 14:17 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $3.99 $6.44 1.61x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $3.99 $1.87 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC

[XM1014 | Ziggy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $3.99 $1.25 0.31x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $3.99 $10.24 2.57x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $3.99 $0.82 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $3.99 | 93.25% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.99 | 94.00% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% covert 0.0% sunny 0.0% covert knife 0.0% Immortal 0.0% classified 3.5% restricted 11.2% Mythical 11.8% uncommon 10.1% pink 19.9% Mil Spec Grade 4.6% Legendary 8.3% #8847ff 10.2% blue 3.4% violet 6.8% Restricted 3.4% milspec 3.4% Rare 3.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.25 on average: an expected loss of $6.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt