--- title: "Dust case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dust ($59.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.60% from 23 items with odds, observed 97.79% over 26 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Dust](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Dust A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust?window=all) Price · $59.99 Advertised RTP · 95.60% · EV $57.35 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.79% · 26 openings, sample method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 48.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 26 openings · below min 30 days · 26 openings · below min since tracking started · 26 openings · below min 72.0% 97.8% 123.5% **Small sample.** 26 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust?window=7d) | 26 | 97.79% ±25.0 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust) | 26 | 97.79% ±25.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust?window=all) | 26 | 97.79% ±25.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,505 | $846 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,880 | $614 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 273 | $338 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $125 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AUG \| Copperhead (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $123 | 5.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Copper (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $115 | 6.1% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $111 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AUG \| Copperhead (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $110 | 5.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Copper (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $108 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Copper (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $102 | 6.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $102 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $74.47 | 7.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $69.22 | 8.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× | | [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $67.02 | 9.5% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.89× | | [P2000 \| Scorpion (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $60.84 | 6.4% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.92× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $45.48 | 4.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [P2000 \| Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $35.36 | 3.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $23.17 | 2.4% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [SCAR-20 \| Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $15.25 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | | [AK-47 \| Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $14.36 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $14.33 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $12.62 | 1.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $11.12 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/dust/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=dust) [SCAR-20 | Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-minimal-wear) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $59.99 $15.25 0.25x 2026-11-08 07:36 UTC [M4A4 | Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $59.99 $66.82 1.11x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC [P2000 | Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $59.99 $39.56 0.66x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC [M4A4 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $59.99 $14.31 0.24x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC [AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $59.99 $14.78 0.25x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC [Sawed-Off | Copper (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $59.99 $102 1.70x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC [AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $59.99 $14.78 0.25x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC [P2000 | Scorpion (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $59.99 $46.20 0.77x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC [M4A4 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $59.99 $14.31 0.24x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC [Sawed-Off | Copper (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $59.99 $113 1.88x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $59.99 | 95.60% | 23 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $59.99 | 94.00% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 20.6% rare 0.1% mil spec 20.3% industrial 28.6% milspec 2.8% blue 3.5% Uncommon 12.0% Restricted 6.0% #87c7ff 6.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.60 on average: an expected loss of $4.40 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt