---
title: "Dust 2 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dust 2 ($0.15) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.48% from 36 items with odds, observed 88.46% over 5,897 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Dust 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Dust 2

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2?window=all)

Price · $0.15

Advertised RTP · 85.48% · EV $0.13 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.46% · 5,897 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.37% ±6.54 906 openings

7 days · 88.46% ±2.57 5,897 openings

30 days · 88.46% ±2.57 5,897 openings

since tracking started · 88.46% ±2.57 5,897 openings

79.0% 86.3% 93.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 85.79% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.89% – 91.03%, 5,897 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2?window=24h) | 906 | 86.37% ±6.54 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2?window=7d) | 5,897 | 88.46% ±2.57 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2) | 5,897 | 88.46% ±2.57 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2?window=all) | 5,897 | 88.46% ±2.57 | +2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,257 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $5.45 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 17,857 | $3.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 11,628 | $2.79 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-factory-new) | 1 in 9,901 | $2.65 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 3,636 | $1.99 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.74× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,132 | $1.48 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 836 | $1.09 | 1.0% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.94× |
| [P90 \| Sand Spray (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 488 | $0.69 | 1.1% | 9 | 12.8 | 0.70× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 156 | $0.65 | 3.2% | 56 | 40.0 | 1.40× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 202 | $0.64 | 2.5% | 34 | 30.9 | 1.10× |
| [Nova \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-factory-new) | 1 in 161 | $0.60 | 2.9% | 38 | 38.8 | 0.98× |
| [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 112 | $0.59 | 4.1% | 63 | 55.9 | 1.13× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 147 | $0.56 | 3.0% | 46 | 42.6 | 1.08× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $0.48 | 4.4% | 85 | 73.5 | 1.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $0.40 | 5.1% | 101 | 101.4 | 1.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $0.37 | 4.2% | 91 | 92.0 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $0.30 | 5.0% | 134 | 132.6 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.23 | 7.5% | 267 | 263.2 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $0.23 | 5.2% | 172 | 181.1 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.20 | 7.1% | 285 | 286.4 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.15 | 9.8% | 571 | 524.5 | 1.09× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.13 | 4.7% | 298 | 291.2 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.11 | 4.0% | 273 | 291.2 | 0.94× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.11 | 4.0% | 322 | 291.2 | 1.11× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.11 | 4.0% | 270 | 291.2 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.08 | 2.9% | 289 | 291.2 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.06 | 2.2% | 287 | 291.2 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.05 | 1.8% | 238 | 291.2 | 0.82× |
| [Tec-9 \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.05 | 1.8% | 277 | 291.2 | 0.95× |
| [P90 \| Sand Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.03 | 1.1% | 292 | 291.2 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.03 | 1.1% | 253 | 291.2 | 0.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.03 | 1.1% | 290 | 291.2 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.03 | 1.1% | 307 | 291.2 | 1.05× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-sand-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.03 | 1.1% | 306 | 291.2 | 1.05× |
| [Nova \| Predator (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.02 | 0.7% | 331 | 291.2 | 1.14× |
| [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.02 | 0.7% | 257 | 291.2 | 0.88× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/dust2/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=dust2)

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [blyadik](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/blyadik) $0.15 $0.08 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [Ярослав Вахрушев](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%20%D0%92%D0%B0%D1%85%D1%80%D1%83%D1%88%D0%B5%D0%B2) $0.15 $0.05 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Ярослав Вахрушев](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%20%D0%92%D0%B0%D1%85%D1%80%D1%83%D1%88%D0%B5%D0%B2) $0.15 $0.08 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $0.15 $0.02 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) [Двойняшка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D1%8F%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.15 $0.11 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[MAC-10 | Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) [Fallen Samurai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fallen%20Samurai) $0.15 $0.03 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [Fallen Samurai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fallen%20Samurai) $0.15 $0.30 2.00x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-field-tested) [Fallen Samurai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fallen%20Samurai) $0.15 $0.02 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) [Fallen Samurai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fallen%20Samurai) $0.15 $0.48 3.20x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[P90 | Sand Spray (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-factory-new) [Fallen Samurai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Fallen%20Samurai) $0.15 $0.69 4.60x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.15 | 85.48% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.15 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed industrial 26.1% classified 0.1% mil spec 1.6% milspec 6.2% Common 4.9% consumer 20.4% Consumer Grade 10.2% #8847ff 0.7% Mythical 1.2% Rare 6.3% Uncommon 13.0% #4b69ff 4.7% #87c7ff 4.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.48 on average: an expected loss of $14.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt