---
title: "Dust 2021 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dust 2021 ($15.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.34% from 32 items with odds, observed 89.00% over 61 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2021
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Dust 2021](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2021)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Dust 2021

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2021?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2021?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2021) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2021?window=all)

Price · $15.99

Advertised RTP · 91.34% · EV $14.61 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.00% · 61 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 61 openings · below min

30 days · 61 openings · below min

since tracking started · 61 openings · below min

71.0% 89.0% 107.0%

**Small sample.** 61 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2021?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2021?window=7d) | 61 | 89.00% ±17.5 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2021) | 61 | 89.00% ±17.5 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dust2021?window=all) | 61 | 89.00% ±17.5 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 61 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $1,888 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,590 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 71,429 | $1,253 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 10,870 | $383 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,494 | $221 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 1,681 | $195 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,767 | $187 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 962 | $150 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 124 | $61.00 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 74 | $50.74 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $30.41 | 6.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $28.30 | 6.5% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $26.20 | 8.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $25.94 | 7.7% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $25.37 | 7.7% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $25.29 | 8.1% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $15.79 | 9.1% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× |
| [Nova \| Quick Sand (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-quick-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $11.43 | 3.4% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $11.35 | 3.4% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $11.33 | 3.4% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $11.10 | 3.3% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.89× |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $10.58 | 3.1% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.89× |
| [Nova \| Quick Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-quick-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $10.17 | 3.0% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $10.09 | 3.0% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $9.21 | 2.7% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.89× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $8.89 | 2.6% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $8.18 | 2.4% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [Nova \| Quick Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-quick-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $7.97 | 2.4% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Withered Vine (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-withered-vine-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $2.50 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.84 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [MP9 \| Old Roots (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-old-roots-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.62 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [AUG \| Spalted Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-spalted-wood-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.55 | 0.5% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.52× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/dust2021/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=dust2021)

[USP-S | Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $15.99 $25.29 1.58x 2026-11-06 13:11 UTC

[AUG | Spalted Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-spalted-wood-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $1.51 0.09x 2026-11-05 20:12 UTC

[MP9 | Old Roots (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-old-roots-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $1.73 0.11x 2026-11-05 20:12 UTC

[P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $11.18 0.70x 2026-11-05 20:12 UTC

[AUG | Spalted Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-spalted-wood-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $1.51 0.09x 2026-11-05 20:12 UTC

[G3SG1 | New Roots (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $11.53 0.72x 2026-11-05 20:12 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $17.51 1.10x 2026-11-05 20:12 UTC

[P250 | Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $8.02 0.50x 2026-11-05 20:12 UTC

[USP-S | Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $25.35 1.59x 2026-11-05 20:12 UTC

[P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $15.99 $11.18 0.70x 2026-11-05 20:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $15.99 | 91.34% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $15.99 | 94.00% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 4.3% covert 0.0% classified 0.2% restricted 14.3% Restricted 3.3% Mythical 8.8% Mil Spec Grade 17.1% blue 8.7% milspec 13.0% Rare 4.3% #4b69ff 8.7% Uncommon 13.0% gray 4.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.34 on average: an expected loss of $8.66 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt