---
title: "Dusty case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dusty ($3.17) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.75% from 42 items with odds, observed 92.68% over 1,527 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dusty
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Dusty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dusty)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Dusty

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dusty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dusty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dusty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dusty?window=all)

Price · $3.17

Advertised RTP · 93.75% · EV $2.97 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.68% · 1,527 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 39 openings · below min

7 days · 92.80% ±5.10 1,521 openings

30 days · 92.68% ±5.09 1,527 openings

since tracking started · 92.68% ±5.09 1,527 openings

56.5% 89.0% 121.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dusty?window=24h) | 39 | 89.18% ±31.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dusty?window=7d) | 1,521 | 92.80% ±5.10 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dusty) | 1,527 | 92.68% ±5.09 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/dusty?window=all) | 1,527 | 92.68% ±5.09 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,527 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 333,333 | $295 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $252 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $227 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 142,857 | $199 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $165 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90,909 | $142 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $63.00 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 12,346 | $62.47 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 5,405 | $50.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-well-worn) | 1 in 4,902 | $42.00 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 2,445 | $36.27 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,151 | $27.47 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 292 | $16.08 | 1.9% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 204 | $13.00 | 2.1% | 6 | 7.5 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $10.89 | 2.3% | 14 | 9.5 | 1.48× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 156 | $10.44 | 2.3% | 7 | 9.8 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 126 | $9.42 | 2.5% | 12 | 12.2 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $9.03 | 2.4% | 10 | 11.9 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $8.28 | 3.2% | 18 | 17.3 | 1.04× |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $8.18 | 3.3% | 19 | 18.2 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-shinobu-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $6.72 | 3.0% | 28 | 20.1 | 1.39× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $6.70 | 3.1% | 26 | 20.7 | 1.25× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $6.04 | 3.3% | 18 | 24.8 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $5.85 | 3.5% | 23 | 27.1 | 0.85× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $5.78 | 3.7% | 20 | 28.8 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $5.50 | 3.4% | 32 | 28.1 | 1.14× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $5.50 | 3.3% | 30 | 27.2 | 1.10× |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $5.30 | 2.8% | 21 | 24.3 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $5.15 | 3.2% | 22 | 28.2 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $4.53 | 3.5% | 39 | 34.7 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $3.97 | 4.8% | 40 | 55.0 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $3.94 | 4.2% | 50 | 48.3 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $3.82 | 4.2% | 56 | 50.1 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $3.61 | 4.9% | 64 | 61.6 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $2.98 | 4.6% | 80 | 70.4 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $2.75 | 4.3% | 72 | 70.9 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.78 | 3.8% | 96 | 96.6 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.69 | 3.6% | 89 | 95.6 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.97 | 2.7% | 119 | 124.6 | 0.95× |
| [SSG 08 \| Zeno (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $0.92 | 3.0% | 155 | 148.7 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $0.76 | 2.6% | 154 | 152.9 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-well-worn) | 12.7% | $0.54 | 2.3% | 199 | 193.8 | 1.03× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/dusty/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=dusty)

[USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) [Taba](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Taba) $3.17 $6.70 2.11x 2026-11-11 05:15 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) [Taba](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Taba) $3.17 $2.98 0.94x 2026-11-11 05:14 UTC

[SSG 08 | Zeno (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-factory-new) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.17 $0.92 0.29x 2026-11-10 22:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.17 $1.78 0.56x 2026-11-10 22:08 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-well-worn) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.17 $0.54 0.17x 2026-11-10 22:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.17 $0.97 0.31x 2026-11-10 22:07 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.17 $0.97 0.31x 2026-11-10 22:07 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.17 $3.94 1.24x 2026-11-10 22:07 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.17 $0.76 0.24x 2026-11-10 22:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.17 $3.61 1.14x 2026-11-10 22:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.17 | 93.75% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.21 | 92.58% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.21 | 93.44% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% classified 13.4% covert knife 0.0% #EB4B4B 0.0% Ancient 0.0% gold 0.0% red 0.0% Legendary 1.1% milspec 10.9% #d32ce6 1.3% pink 11.8% restricted 30.3% Mythical 8.1% violet 3.4% Classified 3.2% Rare 6.3% common 10.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.75 on average: an expected loss of $6.25 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt