---
title: "Egg case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Egg ($0.38) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.01% from 49 items with odds, observed 96.28% over 21.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/egg
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Egg](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/egg)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Egg

A case on CSGORUN (chickens), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/egg?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/egg?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/egg) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/egg?window=all)

Price · $0.38

Advertised RTP · 94.01% · EV $0.36 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.28% · 21.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 56.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 101.39% ±3.88 3,086 openings

7 days · 96.52% ±1.69 16.2K openings

30 days · 96.28% ±1.48 21.5K openings

since tracking started · 96.28% ±1.48 21.5K openings

93.0% 99.5% 106.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 93.70% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.79% – 97.76%, 21,453 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/egg?window=24h) | 3,086 | 101.39% ±3.88 | +3.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/egg?window=7d) | 16.2K | 96.52% ±1.69 | +2.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/egg) | 21.5K | 96.28% ±1.48 | +3.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/egg?window=all) | 21.5K | 96.28% ±1.48 | +3.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $113 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife) | 1 in 333,333 | $51.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333,333 | $49.92 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 166,667 | $30.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $21.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37,037 | $11.74 | 0.1% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35,714 | $11.20 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,204 | $8.14 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 5,181 | $5.38 | 0.3% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,464 | $5.37 | 0.3% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 2,710 | $4.19 | 0.4% | 11 | 7.9 | 1.39× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 1,736 | $3.67 | 0.6% | 15 | 12.4 | 1.21× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 745 | $3.29 | 1.2% | 40 | 28.8 | 1.39× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) | 1 in 767 | $2.53 | 0.9% | 28 | 28.0 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 541 | $2.25 | 1.2% | 43 | 39.7 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-field-tested) | 1 in 234 | $1.64 | 2.0% | 94 | 91.9 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 1 in 243 | $1.62 | 1.9% | 82 | 88.4 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $1.08 | 2.4% | 165 | 168.1 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $1.04 | 2.2% | 182 | 161.1 | 1.13× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $0.98 | 2.5% | 213 | 198.4 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $0.98 | 2.5% | 191 | 198.4 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $0.95 | 3.0% | 470 | 238.8 | 1.97× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $0.95 | 3.0% | 470 | 238.8 | 1.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $0.86 | 2.9% | 277 | 256.8 | 1.08× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $0.85 | 3.1% | 294 | 282.7 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $0.80 | 3.5% | 319 | 333.9 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $0.58 | 3.7% | 505 | 495.6 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.58 | 3.5% | 480 | 469.1 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $0.58 | 3.5% | 492 | 456.6 | 1.08× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Tango (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-tango-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.51 | 3.8% | 613 | 573.5 | 1.07× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.48 | 3.8% | 599 | 610.4 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.44 | 4.1% | 769 | 721.6 | 1.07× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Desert Brush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-desert-brush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.40 | 4.8% | 956 | 918.4 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.40 | 4.7% | 945 | 905.0 | 1.04× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.38 | 4.8% | 982 | 969.7 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.38 | 4.5% | 929 | 905.0 | 1.03× |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.29 | 4.0% | 989 | 1047.2 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.23 | 2.8% | 904 | 933.3 | 0.97× |
| [MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.23 | 2.8% | 934 | 942.9 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.23 | 2.9% | 968 | 955.7 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-bone-forged-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.21 | 2.6% | 996 | 953.4 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.17 | 2.1% | 897 | 939.9 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Echoing Sands (Well-Worn) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-echoing-sands-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.17 | 2.1% | 968 | 958.0 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.15 | 1.8% | 980 | 939.9 | 1.04× |
| [MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-snow-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.13 | 1.6% | 917 | 936.7 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Sunbaked (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $0.05 | 0.6% | 835 | 884.3 | 0.94× |
| [Tec-9 \| Tiger Stencil (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-tiger-stencil-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $0.05 | 0.6% | 839 | 884.3 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.02 | 0.2% | 805 | 860.9 | 0.94× |
| [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.01 | 0.1% | 719 | 812.7 | 0.88× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/egg/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=egg)

[USP-S | Desert Tactical (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-well-worn) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.38 $0.17 0.45x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-bone-forged-field-tested) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.38 $0.21 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[MP7 | Sunbaked (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-well-worn) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.38 $0.05 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.38 $0.85 2.24x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.38 $0.23 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-battle-scarred) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.38 $0.23 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[MAC-10 | Echoing Sands (Well-Worn) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-echoing-sands-well-worn) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.38 $0.17 0.45x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-battle-scarred) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.38 $0.23 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Desert Brush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-desert-brush-battle-scarred) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.38 $0.40 1.05x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[MAC-10 | Whitefish (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-well-worn) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $0.38 $0.23 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.38 | 94.01% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.38 | 92.50% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 4.2% 2 4.5% extraordinary 0.0% Immortal 0.0% covert 0.0% red 0.0% classified 0.0% industrial 4.1% pink 0.8% restricted 5.9% #d32ee6 0.0% Legendary 0.1% mil spec 11.8% #8847ff 3.5% uncommon 0.2% #4b69ff 14.6% milspec 10.5% violet 10.5% consumer 8.3% Mil Spec 4.4% blueLight 4.4% #5e98d9 4.4% Common 4.1% #b0c3d9 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.01 on average: an expected loss of $5.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt