---
title: "Elclasico case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Elclasico ($1.09) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.96% from 42 items with odds, observed 97.23% over 2,258 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elclasico
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Elclasico](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elclasico)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Elclasico

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elclasico?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elclasico?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elclasico) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elclasico?window=all)

Price · $1.09

Advertised RTP · 93.96% · EV $1.02 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.23% · 2,258 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 98.94% ±9.01 1,657 openings

30 days · 97.23% ±7.72 2,258 openings

since tracking started · 97.23% ±7.72 2,258 openings

89.0% 98.8% 108.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elclasico?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elclasico?window=7d) | 1,657 | 98.94% ±9.01 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elclasico) | 2,258 | 97.23% ±7.72 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elclasico?window=all) | 2,258 | 97.23% ±7.72 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,258 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,114 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $776 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $613 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500,000 | $205 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-crane-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $187 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $98.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $71.07 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $46.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-well-worn) | 1 in 28,571 | $40.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) | 1 in 14,925 | $32.34 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16,393 | $32.30 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 14,925 | $31.61 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,651 | $22.37 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,410 | $20.68 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 4,219 | $17.79 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,770 | $15.03 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,873 | $13.73 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,325 | $11.07 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-factory-new) | 1 in 344 | $7.61 | 2.2% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.61× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 1 in 348 | $7.15 | 2.0% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 138 | $4.50 | 3.2% | 21 | 16.4 | 1.28× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $4.38 | 3.4% | 12 | 18.0 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $3.60 | 4.0% | 31 | 25.7 | 1.20× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $3.59 | 3.9% | 27 | 25.0 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $2.98 | 4.5% | 28 | 34.7 | 0.81× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $2.53 | 5.7% | 67 | 51.9 | 1.29× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $2.32 | 4.8% | 48 | 47.7 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.76 | 6.0% | 75 | 78.4 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.48 | 6.5% | 93 | 102.0 | 0.91× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1.35 | 7.2% | 116 | 124.2 | 0.93× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $1.31 | 7.9% | 151 | 140.0 | 1.08× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.85 | 6.0% | 153 | 164.1 | 0.93× |
| [Galil AR \| Galigator (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.84 | 6.0% | 189 | 166.5 | 1.14× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.79 | 5.6% | 154 | 164.1 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.61 | 4.2% | 161 | 157.8 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.49 | 3.2% | 135 | 149.9 | 0.90× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $0.42 | 2.6% | 141 | 141.0 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.32 | 1.9% | 144 | 135.7 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.31 | 1.8% | 130 | 130.8 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.25 | 1.4% | 130 | 130.8 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.18 | 0.9% | 119 | 121.1 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.13 | 0.6% | 115 | 113.5 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/elclasico/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) [○SKYBI○](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%97%8BSKYBI%E2%97%8B) $1.10 $71.07 64.61x 2026-11-04 16:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=elclasico)

[Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-field-tested) [max2011tishakov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/max2011tishakov) $1.09 $0.84 0.77x 2026-11-08 22:02 UTC

[UMP-45 | Continuum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-battle-scarred) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3A%29) $1.09 $0.42 0.39x 2026-11-08 20:41 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) [omcscs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/omcscs) $1.09 $2.98 2.73x 2026-11-08 15:06 UTC

[USP-S | Silent Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) [Jisco csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jisco%20csgorun) $1.09 $0.31 0.28x 2026-11-08 13:26 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) [Jisco csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jisco%20csgorun) $1.09 $0.49 0.45x 2026-11-08 13:26 UTC

[Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-field-tested) [Jisco csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jisco%20csgorun) $1.09 $0.84 0.77x 2026-11-08 13:26 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) [Jisco csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jisco%20csgorun) $1.09 $0.79 0.72x 2026-11-08 13:25 UTC

[MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-factory-new) [Jisco csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jisco%20csgorun) $1.09 $0.85 0.78x 2026-11-08 13:25 UTC

[SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) [Jisco csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jisco%20csgorun) $1.09 $2.32 2.13x 2026-11-08 13:25 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) [somethingwrong](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/somethingwrong) $1.09 $1.76 1.61x 2026-11-08 12:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.09 | 93.96% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.10 | 93.11% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.10 | 94.46% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% rare 0.0% Immortal 0.0% Ancient 0.0% Legendary 2.0% classified 2.3% pink 6.1% uncommon 12.9% Mythical 5.9% Classified 0.3% #d32ee6 0.7% #4b69ff 6.5% #8847ff 22.6% Restricted 3.5% Rare 7.3% violet 7.4% blue 11.8% milspec 5.8% Uncommon 5.0% best hit $71.07 (64.61x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.96 on average: an expected loss of $6.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt