---
title: "Elections case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Elections ($2.59) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.97% from 49 items with odds, observed 90.96% over 419 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elections
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Elections](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elections)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Elections

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elections?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elections?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elections) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elections?window=all)

Price · $2.59

Advertised RTP · 93.97% · EV $2.43 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.96% · 419 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 93.62% ±19.51 234 openings

30 days · 90.96% ±14.50 419 openings

since tracking started · 90.96% ±14.50 419 openings

-0.5% 169.5% 339.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elections?window=24h) | 2 | 127.22% ±211.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elections?window=7d) | 234 | 93.62% ±19.5 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elections) | 419 | 90.96% ±14.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/elections?window=all) | 419 | 90.96% ±14.5 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 419 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,570 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,284 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $848 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) | 1 in 200,000 | $209 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $125 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $119 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-well-worn) | 1 in 71,429 | $82.33 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,901 | $54.42 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sir Bloody Loudmouth Darryl \| The Professionals agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-loudmouth-darryl-the-professionals) | 1 in 12,048 | $54.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,061 | $46.17 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-well-worn) | 1 in 3,226 | $33.59 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Baroque Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,353 | $27.38 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,389 | $23.99 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-well-worn) | 1 in 727 | $19.32 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-field-tested) | 1 in 801 | $17.38 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-field-tested) | 1 in 345 | $14.88 | 1.8% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.47× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 307 | $13.41 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $7.44 | 2.5% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 101 | $7.43 | 3.0% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $6.82 | 3.4% | 9 | 5.0 | 1.79× |
| [Nova \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $6.29 | 1.9% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $6.14 | 2.7% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.10× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $5.52 | 4.1% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Red Stone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $5.23 | 3.2% | 8 | 6.2 | 1.28× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $4.74 | 3.2% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $4.70 | 2.9% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.63× |
| [P2000 \| Red FragCam (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $4.44 | 3.2% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $4.11 | 3.8% | 17 | 9.5 | 1.78× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $3.59 | 5.9% | 11 | 16.6 | 0.66× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $3.51 | 5.4% | 14 | 15.8 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $3.29 | 4.4% | 17 | 13.8 | 1.23× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $2.96 | 3.8% | 10 | 13.0 | 0.77× |
| [Glock-18 \| Red Tire (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-red-tire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $2.48 | 4.8% | 25 | 19.5 | 1.28× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.19 | 4.2% | 18 | 19.5 | 0.92× |
| [XM1014 \| Red Python (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-python-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.06 | 3.8% | 14 | 18.6 | 0.75× |
| [MP7 \| Guerrilla (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-guerrilla-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.86 | 3.5% | 16 | 19.0 | 0.84× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.79 | 3.2% | 21 | 18.4 | 1.14× |
| [FAMAS \| Faulty Wiring (Well-Worn) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-faulty-wiring-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $1.79 | 3.3% | 13 | 19.1 | 0.68× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.71 | 3.1% | 14 | 18.6 | 0.75× |
| [Galil AR \| Akoben (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-akoben-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.33 | 2.3% | 26 | 17.9 | 1.45× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $1.31 | 2.3% | 16 | 17.6 | 0.91× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Withered Vine (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-withered-vine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.22 | 2.1% | 15 | 17.5 | 0.86× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.90 | 1.5% | 18 | 16.6 | 1.08× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.82 | 1.3% | 19 | 16.2 | 1.17× |
| [Nova \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.60 | 0.9% | 23 | 16.0 | 1.43× |
| [M249 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.51 | 0.8% | 16 | 15.5 | 1.04× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.48 | 0.7% | 15 | 15.5 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.21 | 0.3% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 12 | 12.4 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/elections/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=elections)

[Glock-18 | Red Tire (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-red-tire-minimal-wear) [snikers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/snikers) $2.59 $2.48 0.96x 2026-11-11 06:17 UTC

[SG 553 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-field-tested) [snikers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/snikers) $2.59 $4.11 1.59x 2026-11-11 06:17 UTC

[Nova | Predator (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-predator-factory-new) [Evgeny Vadimovich](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Evgeny%20Vadimovich) $2.59 $0.60 0.23x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-battle-scarred) [Evgeny Vadimovich](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Evgeny%20Vadimovich) $2.59 $1.31 0.51x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Evgeny Vadimovich](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Evgeny%20Vadimovich) $2.59 $0.90 0.35x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) [Evgeny Vadimovich](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Evgeny%20Vadimovich) $2.59 $4.74 1.83x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC

[Galil AR | Akoben (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-akoben-factory-new) [Evgeny Vadimovich](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Evgeny%20Vadimovich) $2.59 $1.33 0.51x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) [Evgeny Vadimovich](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Evgeny%20Vadimovich) $2.59 $1.79 0.69x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [Evgeny Vadimovich](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Evgeny%20Vadimovich) $2.59 $0.90 0.35x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC

[P90 | Tiger Pit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-field-tested) [Evgeny Vadimovich](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Evgeny%20Vadimovich) $2.59 $14.88 5.75x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.59 | 93.97% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.60 | 93.61% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.60 | 93.24% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% classified 0.4% sunny 0.0% industrial 3.1% restricted 6.2% milspec 0.0% red 0.0% #4b69ff 0.3% mil spec 23.8% blue 7.6% Mythical 0.8% #8847ff 5.6% Restricted 0.8% Mil Spec Grade 5.6% consumer 5.3% Industrial 2.3% Common 4.0% Uncommon 8.8% violet 4.7% other 4.6% Rare 8.3% uncommon 4.2% Consumer Grade 3.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.97 on average: an expected loss of $6.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt