---
title: "Esports 2013 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Esports 2013 ($4.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.66% from 27 items with odds, observed 91.57% over 84 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2013
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Esports 2013](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2013)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Esports 2013

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2013?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2013?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2013) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2013?window=all)

Price · $4.49

Advertised RTP · 93.66% · EV $4.21 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.57% · 84 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 11 openings · below min

7 days · 84 openings · below min

30 days · 84 openings · below min

since tracking started · 84 openings · below min

43.0% 108.8% 174.5%

**Small sample.** 84 openings and 23.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2013?window=24h) | 11 | 108.83% ±65.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2013?window=7d) | 84 | 91.57% ±23.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2013) | 84 | 91.57% ±23.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2013?window=all) | 84 | 91.57% ±23.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 119 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $615 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $409 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166,667 | $304 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $192 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30,303 | $158 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 9,524 | $90.19 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 5,587 | $80.52 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,653 | $51.64 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Splash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 1,815 | $50.23 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 1,724 | $49.34 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 1,522 | $48.56 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 1,686 | $48.44 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 1,626 | $47.55 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,259 | $46.98 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 861 | $32.05 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 190 | $24.05 | 3.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 219 | $22.09 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P250 \| Splash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-field-tested) | 1 in 189 | $21.30 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $17.64 | 3.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $15.73 | 3.3% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.92× |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $14.65 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $7.43 | 4.8% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.87× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $6.51 | 4.9% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $4.05 | 8.8% | 8 | 10.8 | 0.74× |
| [MAG-7 \| Memento (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $4.04 | 8.6% | 9 | 10.6 | 0.85× |
| [MAG-7 \| Memento (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $3.44 | 3.4% | 9 | 5.0 | 1.80× |
| [MAG-7 \| Memento (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-minimal-wear) | 67.5% | $2.85 | 45.7% | 80 | 80.3 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/esports2013/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=esports2013)

[MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $2.85 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $2.85 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $2.85 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $2.85 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $4.05 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $2.85 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $2.85 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $24.05 5.36x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $2.85 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-minimal-wear) [𝚂𝚝𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%9A%82%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%92%F0%9D%9A%9D%F0%9D%9A%8C%F0%9D%9A%91) $4.49 $2.85 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $4.49 | 93.66% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.49 | 94.00% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% Covert 0.0% classified 0.1% #ffd700 0.1% restricted 2.1% gold 0.1% Rare 67.6% #8847ff 0.5% violet 0.5% Restricted 0.9% mil spec 24.9% blue 3.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.66 on average: an expected loss of $6.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt