---
title: "Esports 2014 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Esports 2014 ($2.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.32% from 35 items with odds, observed 98.67% over 84 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2014
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Esports 2014](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2014)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Esports 2014

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2014?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2014?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2014) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2014?window=all)

Price · $2.99

Advertised RTP · 94.32% · EV $2.82 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.67% · 84 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 41.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 84 openings · below min

30 days · 84 openings · below min

since tracking started · 84 openings · below min

87.5% 98.8% 110.0%

**Small sample.** 84 openings and 35.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2014?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2014?window=7d) | 84 | 98.67% ±10.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2014) | 84 | 98.67% ±10.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esports2014?window=all) | 84 | 98.67% ±10.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 131 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $428 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $288 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $189 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $148 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $85.27 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $81.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71,429 | $51.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19,231 | $33.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,048 | $30.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) | 1 in 2,020 | $20.42 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 4,049 | $20.19 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 1 in 796 | $12.81 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 509 | $10.47 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 426 | $10.28 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Negev \| Bratatat (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-factory-new) | 1 in 429 | $10.21 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 425 | $10.18 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 444 | $9.81 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 524 | $9.71 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 294 | $8.81 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $6.39 | 1.7% | 5 | 1.0 | 4.98× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $4.91 | 2.4% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $4.49 | 3.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $3.60 | 4.0% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.47× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.29 | 4.0% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× |
| [Negev \| Bratatat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $3.05 | 9.0% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.92× |
| [XM1014 \| Red Python (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-python-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $3.04 | 4.2% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.79× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.91 | 8.6% | 13 | 10.9 | 1.19× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.83 | 8.4% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.92× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.78 | 8.2% | 8 | 10.9 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $2.68 | 7.9% | 8 | 10.9 | 0.73× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $2.35 | 6.9% | 8 | 10.9 | 0.73× |
| [Negev \| Bratatat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.23 | 6.6% | 14 | 10.9 | 1.28× |
| [XM1014 \| Red Python (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-python-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.06 | 6.1% | 15 | 10.9 | 1.37× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.99 | 5.9% | 8 | 10.9 | 0.73× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.85 | 5.5% | 14 | 10.9 | 1.28× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/esports2014/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=esports2014)

[P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) [bus1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bus1k) $2.99 $2.91 0.97x 2026-11-10 14:51 UTC

[P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) [bus1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bus1k) $2.99 $2.91 0.97x 2026-11-10 14:51 UTC

[USP-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) [bus1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bus1k) $2.99 $2.68 0.90x 2026-11-10 14:51 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) [milyutkinr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/milyutkinr) $2.99 $1.99 0.67x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC

[Negev | Bratatat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-field-tested) [milyutkinr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/milyutkinr) $2.99 $2.23 0.75x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) [milyutkinr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/milyutkinr) $2.99 $1.99 0.67x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) [milyutkinr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/milyutkinr) $2.99 $2.78 0.93x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC

[USP-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) [milyutkinr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/milyutkinr) $2.99 $2.83 0.95x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC

[Negev | Bratatat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bratatat-minimal-wear) [milyutkinr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/milyutkinr) $2.99 $3.05 1.02x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-minimal-wear) [DakiTo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DakiTo) $2.99 $8.81 2.95x 2026-11-10 06:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.99 | 94.32% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.99 | 94.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 0.2% covert 0.0% covert knife 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% restricted 18.8% classified 0.2% violet 0.0% #d32ce6 0.0% Mythical 0.2% mil spec 53.2% #8847ff 2.2% Mil Spec Grade 8.3% Rare 16.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.32 on average: an expected loss of $5.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt