---
title: "Esportswinter case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Esportswinter ($161.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.88% from 36 items with odds, observed 59.21% over 8 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esportswinter
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Esportswinter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esportswinter)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Esportswinter

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esportswinter?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esportswinter?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esportswinter) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esportswinter?window=all)

Price · $161.99

Advertised RTP · 91.88% · EV $148.84 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 59.21% · 8 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 52.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 8 openings · below min

30 days · 8 openings · below min

since tracking started · 8 openings · below min

29.5% 59.3% 89.0%

**Small sample.** 8 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esportswinter?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esportswinter?window=7d) | 8 | 59.21% ±29.1 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esportswinter) | 8 | 59.21% ±29.1 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/esportswinter?window=all) | 8 | 59.21% ±29.1 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 58,824 | $4,689 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $2,505 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 4,115 | $1,989 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 4,065 | $1,982 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,247 | $1,814 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,439 | $1,386 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 839 | $1,107 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 416 | $894 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 230 | $752 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 176 | $615 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $493 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $440 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $417 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $329 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $304 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $217 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $194 | 8.2% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $192 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $189 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $172 | 9.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $167 | 8.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $123 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $122 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $110 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $87.20 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $80.13 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $72.36 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $62.57 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $55.88 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $51.64 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $47.55 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $46.98 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $39.50 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $30.46 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $26.40 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $22.79 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/esportswinter/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=esportswinter)

[★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $162 $44.47 0.27x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $162 $49.05 0.30x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $162 $49.05 0.30x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $162 $124 0.76x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $162 $194 1.20x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC

[AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $162 $24.92 0.15x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $162 $194 1.20x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $162 $87.40 0.54x 2026-11-05 20:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $162 | 91.88% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $162 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 58.2% epic 0.0% Covert 3.5% Immortal 0.1% covert knife 3.1% classified 17.5% red 3.5% sunny 3.5% #ffd700 3.5% gold 3.5% Mythical 3.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.88 on average: an expected loss of $8.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt