---
title: "Evaelfie case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Evaelfie ($22.37) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.99% from 49 items with odds, observed 84.15% over 82 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/evaelfie
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Evaelfie](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/evaelfie)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Evaelfie

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/evaelfie?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/evaelfie?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/evaelfie) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/evaelfie?window=all)

Price · $22.37

Advertised RTP · 93.99% · EV $21.03 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.15% · 82 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 11 openings · below min

30 days · 82 openings · below min

since tracking started · 82 openings · below min

-0.5% 143.5% 287.5%

**Small sample.** 82 openings and 18.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/evaelfie?window=24h) | 3 | 95.25% ±191.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/evaelfie?window=7d) | 11 | 84.53% ±98.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/evaelfie) | 82 | 84.15% ±36.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/evaelfie?window=all) | 82 | 84.15% ±36.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $13.1K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $11.3K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,944 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,895 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,857 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,653 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $6,043 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,910 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,395 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $2,122 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $1,888 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $1,382 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,284 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62,500 | $1,115 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37,037 | $842 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 15,152 | $629 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 10,417 | $545 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 10,753 | $532 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $357 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 3,257 | $329 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,764 | $271 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 1,681 | $254 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 960 | $208 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 488 | $165 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 444 | $162 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 308 | $137 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 171 | $102 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 109 | $82.32 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $71.07 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $62.64 | 3.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $62.50 | 4.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $53.71 | 4.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $53.38 | 4.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $49.37 | 4.9% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $31.17 | 6.6% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $25.78 | 7.0% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.49× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $24.68 | 6.9% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $21.90 | 7.4% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $21.60 | 7.2% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.22× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $19.88 | 6.6% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $11.37 | 3.4% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $10.04 | 3.0% | 8 | 5.1 | 1.57× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $9.46 | 2.8% | 8 | 5.1 | 1.58× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $6.60 | 1.8% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $5.45 | 1.5% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $5.09 | 1.3% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.34× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $4.36 | 1.1% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $3.59 | 0.9% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| [FAMAS \| 2A2F (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-2a2f-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.77 | 0.6% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.50× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/evaelfie/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=evaelfie)

[UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [BeαR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Be%CE%B1R) $22.37 $9.46 0.42x 2026-11-10 14:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) [BeαR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Be%CE%B1R) $22.37 $5.09 0.23x 2026-11-10 14:30 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) [BeαR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Be%CE%B1R) $22.37 $49.37 2.21x 2026-11-10 14:30 UTC

[Glock-18 | AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) [0VE4K1N8](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/0VE4K1N8) $22.79 $19.88 0.87x 2026-11-05 12:47 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) [○SKYBI○](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%97%8BSKYBI%E2%97%8B) $22.79 $10.04 0.44x 2026-11-05 10:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $22.79 $19.88 0.87x 2026-11-05 06:07 UTC

[UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [калабок](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%BA) $22.79 $9.46 0.42x 2026-11-04 20:33 UTC

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) [○SKYBI○](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%97%8BSKYBI%E2%97%8B) $22.79 $53.38 2.34x 2026-11-04 16:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) [○SKYBI○](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%97%8BSKYBI%E2%97%8B) $22.79 $10.04 0.44x 2026-11-04 16:34 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) [○SKYBI○](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%97%8BSKYBI%E2%97%8B) $22.79 $4.36 0.19x 2026-11-04 16:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $22.37 | 93.99% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $22.79 | 92.26% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.79 | 94.48% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.3% contraband 0.0% extraordinary 2.0% sunny 0.0% classified 11.4% covert knife 0.0% gold 0.0% legendary 0.0% rare 8.3% Immortal 0.3% red 7.4% restricted 5.9% pink 18.8% Classified 11.7% uncommon 6.2% #d32ce6 5.8% violet 5.6% #4b69ff 10.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.99 on average: an expected loss of $6.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt