---
title: "Facetoface case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Facetoface ($4.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.94% from 42 items with odds, observed 98.06% over 250 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/facetoface
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Facetoface](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/facetoface)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Facetoface

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/facetoface?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/facetoface?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/facetoface) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/facetoface?window=all)

Price · $4.99

Advertised RTP · 93.94% · EV $4.69 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.06% · 250 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 83 openings · below min

30 days · 98.06% ±30.61 250 openings

since tracking started · 98.06% ±30.61 250 openings

39.5% 93.8% 148.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/facetoface?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/facetoface?window=7d) | 83 | 93.70% ±53.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/facetoface) | 250 | 98.06% ±30.6 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/facetoface?window=all) | 250 | 98.06% ±30.6 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 251 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,593 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,283 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,618 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,456 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,163 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,137 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $722 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $619 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $529 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 166,667 | $411 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 62,500 | $216 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43,478 | $191 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28,571 | $184 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife) | 1 in 13,514 | $129 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-plum-quill-field-tested) | 1 in 7,874 | $102 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,938 | $66.70 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 1,493 | $55.14 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 606 | $38.28 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 260 | $27.17 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 207 | $25.78 | 2.7% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $19.92 | 3.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $16.30 | 3.9% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $13.47 | 4.3% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $12.49 | 4.3% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.24× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $11.34 | 4.6% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $7.79 | 6.5% | 4 | 9.8 | 0.41× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $5.88 | 6.5% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $5.74 | 6.1% | 17 | 12.6 | 1.35× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $5.46 | 7.4% | 15 | 16.0 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $5.42 | 7.7% | 20 | 16.8 | 1.19× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $4.80 | 7.4% | 17 | 18.1 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $4.62 | 7.0% | 17 | 17.8 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $4.06 | 6.0% | 20 | 17.2 | 1.16× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $3.23 | 4.3% | 13 | 15.7 | 0.83× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $3.11 | 4.2% | 19 | 15.7 | 1.21× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.63 | 1.8% | 6 | 12.7 | 0.47× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $1.39 | 1.5% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.71× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.97 | 0.9% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.97 | 0.9% | 8 | 11.2 | 0.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $0.97 | 1.0% | 8 | 11.7 | 0.68× |
| [MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.59 | 0.5% | 17 | 9.7 | 1.75× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.56 | 0.5% | 14 | 9.5 | 1.48× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/facetoface/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=facetoface)

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $4.99 $1.39 0.28x 2026-11-09 06:02 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $4.99 $5.42 1.09x 2026-11-09 06:01 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $4.99 $0.97 0.19x 2026-11-09 06:01 UTC

[MP9 | Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $4.99 $5.74 1.15x 2026-11-09 06:01 UTC

[MP5-SD | Liquidation (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $4.99 $0.59 0.12x 2026-11-09 06:01 UTC

[MP9 | Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $4.99 $5.74 1.15x 2026-11-09 06:01 UTC

[MP9 | Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $4.99 $5.74 1.15x 2026-11-09 06:01 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $4.99 $4.62 0.93x 2026-11-09 06:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $4.99 $4.06 0.81x 2026-11-09 06:00 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $4.99 $4.80 0.96x 2026-11-09 06:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.99 | 93.94% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.95 | 94.70% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.95 | 93.89% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% covert knife 0.1% Immortal 0.0% red 0.6% rare 0.4% pink 21.7% #d32ee6 8.0% classified 19.0% uncommon 9.0% restricted 12.7% #8847ff 6.3% Mythical 10.1% milspec 8.3% Rare 3.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.94 on average: an expected loss of $6.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt