---
title: "Fade case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fade ($564.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.80% from 29 items with odds, observed 113.32% over 40 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fade
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Fade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fade)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Fade

A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fade?window=all)

Price · $564.99

Advertised RTP · 91.80% · EV $518.66 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 113.32% · 40 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 40 openings · below min

30 days · 40 openings · below min

since tracking started · 40 openings · below min

89.0% 113.5% 138.0%

**Small sample.** 40 openings and 11.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fade?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fade?window=7d) | 40 | 113.32% ±23.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fade) | 40 | 113.32% ±23.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fade?window=all) | 40 | 113.32% ±23.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 212 | $2,561 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 212 | $2,505 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 169 | $2,208 | 2.5% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $1,955 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $1,814 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 103 | $1,695 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $1,378 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $1,201 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $904 | 5.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $894 | 5.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $868 | 6.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.31× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $816 | 6.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.23× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $642 | 8.3% | 7 | 2.7 | 2.60× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $599 | 8.1% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $549 | 4.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $546 | 8.7% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $488 | 3.8% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.48× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $400 | 3.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $358 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $297 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $271 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $221 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $187 | 1.5% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.86× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $165 | 1.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $150 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $119 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $99.28 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $96.24 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $86.43 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/fade/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $2,561 4.53x 2026-11-06 14:10 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $2,208 3.91x 2026-11-06 14:19 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $2,208 3.91x 2026-11-06 14:18 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $1,814 3.21x 2026-11-06 14:20 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $894 1.58x 2026-11-07 10:48 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $868 1.54x 2026-11-07 11:26 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $868 1.54x 2026-11-07 11:25 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $816 1.44x 2026-11-06 14:19 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $565 $816 1.44x 2026-11-06 06:42 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [skertop](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/skertop) $565 $642 1.14x 2026-11-09 13:14 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=fade)

[★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [skertop](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/skertop) $565 $546 0.97x 2026-11-09 13:14 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [skertop](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/skertop) $565 $642 1.14x 2026-11-09 13:14 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $549 0.97x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [sT3l1A!](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/sT3l1A!) $565 $599 1.06x 2026-11-07 22:33 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [sT3l1A!](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/sT3l1A!) $565 $642 1.14x 2026-11-07 22:32 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $642 1.14x 2026-11-07 19:08 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $642 1.14x 2026-11-07 19:08 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $187 0.33x 2026-11-07 11:27 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $488 0.86x 2026-11-07 11:27 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $565 $642 1.14x 2026-11-07 11:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $565 | 91.80% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $565 | 94.00% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 9.0% covert 60.3% restricted 2.3% legendary 12.0% covert knife 12.3% classified 4.0% best hit $2,561 (4.53x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.80 on average: an expected loss of $8.20 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt