---
title: "Falchion case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Falchion ($2.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.29% from 36 items with odds, observed 89.80% over 444 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchion
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Falchion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchion)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Falchion

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchion?window=all)

Price · $2.49

Advertised RTP · 91.29% · EV $2.27 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.80% · 444 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 444 openings · below min

30 days · 444 openings · below min

since tracking started · 444 openings · below min

-0.5% 99.5% 199.5%

**Small sample.** 444 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchion?window=24h) | 4 | 98.29% ±100.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchion?window=7d) | 444 | 89.80% ±7.84 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchion) | 444 | 89.80% ±7.84 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchion?window=all) | 444 | 89.80% ±7.84 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 444 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $373 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $239 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $157 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $122 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45,455 | $83.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17,857 | $61.04 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 5,076 | $40.41 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 3,390 | $35.02 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 1,105 | $22.44 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 1 in 501 | $17.04 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 221 | $13.59 | 2.7% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 98 | $8.50 | 3.8% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $8.33 | 4.0% | 10 | 4.8 | 2.07× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $7.03 | 5.6% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.25× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $5.38 | 5.4% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $4.85 | 7.0% | 15 | 14.5 | 1.03× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $4.77 | 6.9% | 11 | 14.6 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.67 | 6.3% | 14 | 13.6 | 1.03× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $4.32 | 6.7% | 10 | 15.5 | 0.64× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $2.94 | 10.5% | 42 | 36.2 | 1.16× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.73 | 10.0% | 34 | 37.1 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $2.01 | 3.7% | 18 | 18.8 | 0.96× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.69 | 3.1% | 21 | 18.8 | 1.12× |
| [Nova \| Ranger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.65 | 3.1% | 17 | 18.8 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.43 | 2.7% | 17 | 18.8 | 0.91× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.17 | 2.2% | 14 | 18.8 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.15 | 2.1% | 28 | 18.8 | 1.49× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.95 | 1.8% | 20 | 18.8 | 1.07× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.82 | 1.5% | 15 | 18.8 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.72 | 1.3% | 17 | 18.8 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.67 | 1.2% | 13 | 18.8 | 0.69× |
| [UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.59 | 1.1% | 16 | 18.8 | 0.85× |
| [Nova \| Ranger (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.53 | 1.0% | 20 | 18.8 | 1.07× |
| [Nova \| Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.51 | 0.9% | 22 | 18.8 | 1.17× |
| [UMP-45 \| Riot (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.48 | 0.9% | 24 | 18.8 | 1.28× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.47 | 0.9% | 23 | 18.8 | 1.23× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/falchion/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=falchion)

[Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) [Дима Чекушка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%A7%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $2.49 $0.82 0.33x 2026-11-11 00:00 UTC

[Nova | Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-field-tested) [Дима Чекушка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%94%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%20%D0%A7%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $2.49 $0.51 0.20x 2026-11-10 23:59 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $1.43 0.57x 2026-11-10 19:47 UTC

[MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) [bus1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/bus1k) $2.49 $7.03 2.82x 2026-11-10 14:50 UTC

[P2000 | Handgun (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-minimal-wear) [zlemie](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/zlemie) $2.49 $1.69 0.68x 2026-11-10 11:21 UTC

[UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) [zlemie](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/zlemie) $2.49 $0.59 0.24x 2026-11-10 11:21 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $2.49 $4.77 1.92x 2026-11-10 11:12 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $2.49 $2.01 0.81x 2026-11-10 11:12 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $2.49 $8.33 3.35x 2026-11-10 11:12 UTC

[Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $2.49 $2.94 1.18x 2026-11-10 11:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.49 | 91.29% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.49 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% covert 0.1% classified 6.5% restricted 21.7% violet 0.5% Rare 5.3% mil spec 36.6% Mythical 8.4% milspec 12.7% #4b69ff 4.2% blue 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.29 on average: an expected loss of $8.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt