---
title: "Falchionknife case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Falchionknife ($104.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.66% from 30 items with odds, observed 58.43% over 3 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchionknife
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Falchionknife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchionknife)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Falchionknife

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchionknife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchionknife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchionknife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchionknife?window=all)

Price · $104.99

Advertised RTP · 93.66% · EV $98.34 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 58.43% · 3 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 3 openings · below min

30 days · 3 openings · below min

since tracking started · 3 openings · below min

-0.5% 81.5% 163.5%

**Small sample.** 3 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchionknife?window=24h) | 1 | 53.51% ±109.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchionknife?window=7d) | 3 | 58.43% ±63.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchionknife) | 3 | 58.43% ±63.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falchionknife?window=all) | 3 | 58.43% ±63.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 7,576 | $930 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,445 | $705 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 581 | $517 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,017 | $511 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · #ffd700 · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 495 | $466 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · #ffd700 · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 195 | $393 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $373 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 155 | $293 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 99 | $239 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $218 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $172 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $158 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $157 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $136 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $116 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $116 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $115 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $83.16 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $78.74 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $72.60 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $69.98 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $69.84 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $69.20 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $67.75 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $67.30 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $63.81 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $60.56 | 3.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $60.24 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $59.27 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $56.18 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/falchionknife/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=falchionknife)

[★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Slayer\_134](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Slayer_134) $105 $56.18 0.54x 2026-11-10 18:50 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $105 $67.30 0.64x 2026-11-08 21:27 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $105 $60.56 0.58x 2026-11-08 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $105 | 93.66% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $105 | 94.00% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed knifes 0.0% covert 39.8% #ffd700 10.4% covert knife 39.2% Immortal 3.4% Covert 7.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.66 on average: an expected loss of $6.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt