---
title: "Falcons ewc case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Falcons ewc ($0.82) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.43% from 48 items with odds, observed 95.39% over 2,877 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-ewc
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Falcons ewc](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-ewc)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Falcons ewc

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-ewc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-ewc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-ewc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-ewc?window=all)

Price · $0.82

Advertised RTP · 93.43% · EV $0.77 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.39% · 2,877 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.91% ±12.16 1,233 openings

7 days · 94.70% ±8.72 2,388 openings

30 days · 95.39% ±7.91 2,877 openings

since tracking started · 95.39% ±7.91 2,877 openings

85.0% 97.8% 110.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-ewc?window=24h) | 1,233 | 97.91% ±12.2 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-ewc?window=7d) | 2,388 | 94.70% ±8.72 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-ewc) | 2,877 | 95.39% ±7.91 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-ewc?window=all) | 2,877 | 95.39% ±7.91 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,877 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,137 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $665 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $532 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $329 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $181 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $174 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $157 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200,000 | $68.68 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $63.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $49.98 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 71,429 | $40.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 40,000 | $30.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 16,949 | $21.92 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11,236 | $19.03 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 5,405 | $14.02 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 3,650 | $12.20 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 2,237 | $10.12 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.33× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 1,704 | $9.59 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,934 | $8.69 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.34× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 1,008 | $7.71 | 1.0% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.40× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 746 | $7.13 | 1.2% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 761 | $6.79 | 1.2% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-well-worn) | 1 in 332 | $5.18 | 2.0% | 13 | 8.7 | 1.50× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 361 | $5.01 | 1.8% | 11 | 8.0 | 1.38× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $3.17 | 2.9% | 15 | 19.9 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $3.14 | 2.8% | 19 | 19.9 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-well-worn) | 1 in 98 | $2.31 | 3.1% | 24 | 29.4 | 0.82× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $2.30 | 3.6% | 32 | 34.1 | 0.94× |
| [XM1014 \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $2.02 | 3.5% | 41 | 37.6 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $1.92 | 4.2% | 52 | 48.6 | 1.07× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $1.77 | 4.0% | 56 | 50.3 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $1.47 | 4.5% | 66 | 67.2 | 0.98× |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $1.25 | 3.8% | 87 | 67.2 | 1.29× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $1.18 | 4.9% | 98 | 92.2 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $1.15 | 5.2% | 90 | 99.8 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.13 | 6.5% | 136 | 126.0 | 1.08× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.97 | 7.3% | 156 | 165.5 | 0.94× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.95 | 5.5% | 136 | 128.0 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.62 | 5.0% | 177 | 177.8 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.60 | 4.9% | 161 | 178.4 | 0.90× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.38 | 3.1% | 181 | 180.5 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.35 | 2.9% | 191 | 183.7 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.33 | 2.8% | 196 | 184.0 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.30 | 2.5% | 192 | 186.3 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.21 | 1.8% | 188 | 189.4 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.17 | 1.5% | 173 | 193.8 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.16 | 1.4% | 191 | 189.9 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.15 | 1.3% | 176 | 193.8 | 0.91× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/falcons_ewc/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=falcons-ewc)

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) [tolstiyqqqq](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/tolstiyqqqq) $0.82 $0.97 1.18x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) [❄️MET\_X//ERROR🧂](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9D%84%EF%B8%8FMET_X%2F%2FERROR%F0%9F%A7%82) $0.82 $0.38 0.46x 2026-11-11 08:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.82 $5.01 6.11x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.82 $0.15 0.18x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.82 $1.13 1.38x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.82 $0.15 0.18x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.82 $0.97 1.18x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.82 $0.38 0.46x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.82 $0.97 1.18x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $0.82 $0.60 0.73x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.82 | 93.43% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.83 | 92.30% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.83 | 91.81% | 48 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 6.6% extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.0% epic 0.0% covert knife 0.0% Legendary 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 0.4% pink 6.4% restricted 0.8% violet 12.0% mil spec 6.0% Mythical 7.4% #8847ff 5.7% Rare 1.7% uncommon 1.7% blue 8.7% #d32ce6 3.5% #4b69ff 25.5% #5E98D9 6.7% industrial 6.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.43 on average: an expected loss of $6.57 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt