---
title: "Falcons team case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Falcons team ($22.18) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.98% from 42 items with odds, observed 110.61% over 70 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-team
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Falcons team](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-team)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Falcons team

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-team?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-team?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-team) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-team?window=all)

Price · $22.18

Advertised RTP · 93.98% · EV $20.84 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 110.61% · 70 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 34 openings · below min

30 days · 70 openings · below min

since tracking started · 70 openings · below min

35.5% 90.8% 146.0%

**Small sample.** 70 openings and 11.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-team?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-team?window=7d) | 34 | 85.47% ±49.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-team) | 70 | 110.61% ±34.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/falcons-team?window=all) | 70 | 110.61% ±34.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 70 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $9,155 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,857 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $2,570 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,621 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) | 1 in 66,667 | $1,214 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 58,824 | $1,120 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $816 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 17,857 | $637 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 10,526 | $545 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $445 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 6,098 | $371 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,906 | $358 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 3,509 | $317 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $314 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $288 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-field-tested) | 1 in 1,634 | $251 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,370 | $232 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 672 | $189 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 474 | $161 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 786 | $159 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 472 | $159 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 311 | $137 | 2.1% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 312 | $136 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 169 | $102 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $85.27 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $73.50 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $56.30 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $55.69 | 3.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $42.84 | 5.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $40.42 | 5.2% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $36.50 | 6.9% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $34.66 | 5.7% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.66× |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $26.66 | 8.1% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.35× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $22.60 | 8.1% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $19.94 | 7.2% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $12.81 | 4.8% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.09× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $12.36 | 4.6% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $7.29 | 2.9% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $7.19 | 2.9% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $5.42 | 2.2% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.84× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.47 | 1.5% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2.29 | 1.0% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/falcons_team/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=falcons-team)

[Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-field-tested) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $22.18 $19.94 0.90x 2026-11-09 22:47 UTC

[AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $22.18 $34.66 1.56x 2026-11-09 22:47 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $22.18 $2.29 0.10x 2026-11-09 22:47 UTC

[Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $22.18 $26.66 1.20x 2026-11-09 22:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $22.18 $22.60 1.02x 2026-11-09 22:47 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $22.18 $12.81 0.58x 2026-11-09 22:47 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $22.18 $36.50 1.65x 2026-11-09 22:46 UTC

[Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $22.18 $26.66 1.20x 2026-11-09 22:46 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $22.18 $7.29 0.33x 2026-11-09 22:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $22.18 $12.81 0.58x 2026-11-09 22:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $22.18 | 93.98% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $22.33 | 93.35% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.33 | 93.70% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed remarkable 0.0% covert 6.5% extraordinary 0.6% epic 0.3% classified 7.9% #ffd700 0.0% gold 0.1% sunny 0.1% rare 14.0% Covert 0.2% covert knife 0.2% Immortal 0.3% pink 26.3% red 6.6% Ancient 3.4% Mythical 17.0% restricted 8.2% Legendary 8.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.98 on average: an expected loss of $6.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt