--- title: "Farm blaze case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Farm blaze ($7.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 116.14% over 135 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-blaze rendered: 2026-11-11T13:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Farm blaze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-blaze) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Farm blaze A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-blaze?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-blaze?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-blaze) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-blaze?window=all) Price · $7.49 Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $7.04 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 116.14% · 135 openings, odds method Variance · 33.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 60.56% ±111.72 104 openings 7 days · 116.14% ±98.06 135 openings 30 days · 116.14% ±98.06 135 openings since tracking started · 116.14% ±98.06 135 openings -0.5% 107.3% 215.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-blaze?window=24h) | 104 | 60.56% ±111.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-blaze?window=7d) | 135 | 116.14% ±98.1 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-blaze) | 135 | 116.14% ±98.1 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-blaze?window=all) | 135 | 116.14% ±98.1 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 139 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $614 | 43.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $23.07 | 26.8% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.97× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 13.0% | $11.42 | 21.1% | 20 | 18.1 | 1.10× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 78.3% | $0.76 | 8.5% | 107 | 108.8 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/farm_blaze/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [joskiytip13](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joskiytip13) $7.49 $614 81.96x 2026-11-10 13:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=farm-blaze) [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) [valijahmetov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valijahmetov) $7.49 $11.42 1.52x 2026-11-11 11:22 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $7.49 $0.76 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) [()st)()](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%28%29st%29%28%29) $7.49 $0.76 0.10x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) [()st)()](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%28%29st%29%28%29) $7.49 $0.76 0.10x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) [./../](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.%2F..%2F) $7.49 $0.76 0.10x 2026-11-10 21:13 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) [neyspex](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/neyspex) $7.49 $0.76 0.10x 2026-11-10 20:09 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) [джюк](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B4%D0%B6%D1%8E%D0%BA) $7.49 $11.42 1.52x 2026-11-10 20:06 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) [джюк](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B4%D0%B6%D1%8E%D0%BA) $7.49 $0.76 0.10x 2026-11-10 20:06 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) [джюк](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B4%D0%B6%D1%8E%D0%BA) $7.49 $0.76 0.10x 2026-11-10 20:06 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) [джюк](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B4%D0%B6%D1%8E%D0%BA) $7.49 $11.42 1.52x 2026-11-10 20:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $7.49 | 94.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 0.5% industrial 8.2% Industrial Grade 13.0% Mythical 78.3% best hit $614 (81.96x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt