--- title: "Farm dragonlore case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Farm dragonlore ($85.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 67.29% over 35 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-dragonlore rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Farm dragonlore](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-dragonlore) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Farm dragonlore A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-dragonlore?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-dragonlore?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-dragonlore) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-dragonlore?window=all) Price · $85.99 Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $80.83 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.29% · 35 openings, sample method Variance · 31.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 5 openings · below min 7 days · 35 openings · below min 30 days · 35 openings · below min since tracking started · 35 openings · below min -0.5% 279.3% 559.0% **Small sample.** 35 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-dragonlore?window=24h) | 5 | 62.68% ±495.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-dragonlore?window=7d) | 35 | 67.29% ±32.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-dragonlore) | 35 | 67.29% ±32.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-dragonlore?window=all) | 35 | 67.29% ±32.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $6,856 | 42.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $238 | 28.1% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.50× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 14.0% | $128 | 22.0% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) | 76.0% | $7.95 | 7.5% | 25 | 26.6 | 0.94× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/farm_dragonlore/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=farm-dragonlore) [AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [darkcell](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/darkcell) $85.99 $238 2.76x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC [AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [darkcell](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/darkcell) $85.99 $7.95 0.09x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC [AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [darkcell](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/darkcell) $85.99 $7.95 0.09x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC [AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [darkcell](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/darkcell) $85.99 $7.95 0.09x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC [AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [darkcell](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/darkcell) $85.99 $7.95 0.09x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC [AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $85.99 $7.95 0.09x 2026-11-09 20:21 UTC [AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $85.99 $7.95 0.09x 2026-11-09 20:21 UTC [AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $85.99 $7.95 0.09x 2026-11-09 20:21 UTC [AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $85.99 $7.95 0.09x 2026-11-09 20:21 UTC [AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $85.99 $7.95 0.09x 2026-11-09 20:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $85.99 | 94.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% classified 14.0% Mythical 76.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt