--- title: "Farm fireserpent case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Farm fireserpent ($8.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 175.17% over 61 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-fireserpent rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Farm fireserpent](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-fireserpent) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Farm fireserpent A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-fireserpent?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-fireserpent?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-fireserpent) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-fireserpent?window=all) Price · $8.99 Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $8.45 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 175.17% · 61 openings, odds method Variance · 32.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 23 openings · below min 7 days · 61 openings · below min 30 days · 61 openings · below min since tracking started · 61 openings · below min -0.5% 159.5% 319.5% **Small sample.** 61 openings and 5.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-fireserpent?window=24h) | 23 | 41.08% ±234.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-fireserpent?window=7d) | 61 | 175.17% ±143.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-fireserpent) | 61 | 175.17% ±143.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-fireserpent?window=all) | 61 | 175.17% ±143.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 89 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $726 | 43.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $28.39 | 27.9% | 5 | 7.4 | 0.68× | | [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 13.4% | $13.47 | 21.3% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 77.8% | $0.85 | 7.8% | 72 | 69.3 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/farm_fireserpent/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) [=](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3D) $8.99 $726 80.76x 2026-11-10 05:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=farm-fireserpent) [AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) [enero](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/enero) $8.99 $13.47 1.50x 2026-11-11 18:15 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [S1n0X](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/S1n0X) $8.99 $0.85 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [S1n0X](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/S1n0X) $8.99 $0.85 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [S1n0X](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/S1n0X) $8.99 $0.85 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [Aloxa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aloxa) $8.99 $0.85 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [MariAbABY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MariAbABY) $8.99 $0.85 0.09x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) [Aleg Coffee 😈](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleg%20Coffee%20%F0%9F%98%88) $8.99 $28.39 3.16x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC [AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) [valijahmetov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valijahmetov) $8.99 $13.47 1.50x 2026-11-11 11:22 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [БАБИ КУТЕ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%91%D0%90%D0%91%D0%98%20%D0%9A%D0%A3%D0%A2%D0%95) $8.99 $0.85 0.09x 2026-11-11 09:00 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [()st)()](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%28%29st%29%28%29) $8.99 $0.85 0.09x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $8.99 | 94.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% restricted 8.3% pink 13.4% mil spec 77.8% best hit $726 (80.76x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt