--- title: "Farm glockfade case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Farm glockfade ($16.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 62.85% over 104 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-glockfade rendered: 2026-11-11T22:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Farm glockfade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-glockfade) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Farm glockfade A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-glockfade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-glockfade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-glockfade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-glockfade?window=all) Price · $16.99 Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $15.97 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 62.85% · 104 openings, odds method Variance · 33.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 54 openings · below min 7 days · 62.85% ±110.53 104 openings 30 days · 62.85% ±110.53 104 openings since tracking started · 62.85% ±110.53 104 openings -0.5% 106.8% 214.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-glockfade?window=24h) | 54 | 59.72% ±153.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-glockfade?window=7d) | 104 | 62.85% ±110.5 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-glockfade) | 104 | 62.85% ±110.5 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-glockfade?window=all) | 104 | 62.85% ±110.5 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 197 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,378 | 43.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $51.01 | 27.5% | 23 | 17.0 | 1.36× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 14.3% | $23.46 | 20.9% | 24 | 28.1 | 0.85× | | [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) | 76.6% | $1.75 | 8.4% | 150 | 151.0 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/farm_glockfade/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=farm-glockfade) [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) [kronk](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kronk) $16.99 $1.75 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) [kronk](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kronk) $16.99 $1.75 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) [neX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/neX) $16.99 $1.75 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺 49](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA%2049) $16.99 $1.75 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) [Polughoul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Polughoul) $16.99 $1.75 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:38 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $16.99 $1.75 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $16.99 $1.75 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $16.99 $51.01 3.00x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $16.99 $1.75 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $16.99 $1.75 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $16.99 | 94.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 14.8% classified 8.6% Mythical 76.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt