--- title: "Farm gungnir case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Farm gungnir ($105.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 154.91% over 79 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-gungnir rendered: 2026-11-11T14:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Farm gungnir](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-gungnir) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Farm gungnir A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-gungnir?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-gungnir?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-gungnir) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-gungnir?window=all) Price · $105.99 Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $99.63 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 154.91% · 79 openings, sample method Variance · 32.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 79 openings · below min 30 days · 79 openings · below min since tracking started · 79 openings · below min -0.5% 269.5% 539.5% **Small sample.** 79 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-gungnir?window=24h) | 30 | 334.86% ±204.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-gungnir?window=7d) | 79 | 154.91% ±199.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-gungnir) | 79 | 154.91% ±199.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-gungnir?window=all) | 79 | 154.91% ±199.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 79 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $8,522 | 42.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $315 | 27.5% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.16× | | [AWP \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) | 13.4% | $160 | 21.6% | 8 | 10.6 | 0.75× | | [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 77.4% | $10.44 | 8.1% | 62 | 61.1 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/farm_gungnir/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $106 $8,522 80.41x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=farm-gungnir) [AWP | Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $106 $10.44 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $106 $10.44 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $106 $10.44 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $106 $10.44 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $106 $8,522 80.41x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $106 $315 2.97x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $106 $10.44 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $106 $10.44 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $106 $10.44 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $106 $315 2.97x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $106 | 94.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.2% Ancient 13.4% #4b69ff 77.4% best hit $8,522 (80.41x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt