--- title: "Farm killconfirmed case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Farm killconfirmed ($0.89) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 99.12% over 2,930 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-killconfirmed rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Farm killconfirmed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-killconfirmed) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Farm killconfirmed A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-killconfirmed?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-killconfirmed?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-killconfirmed) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-killconfirmed?window=all) Price · $0.89 Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $0.84 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.12% · 2,930 openings, odds method Variance · 27.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.97% ±24.62 1,765 openings 7 days · 99.12% ±19.11 2,930 openings 30 days · 99.12% ±19.11 2,930 openings since tracking started · 99.12% ±19.11 2,930 openings 69.5% 94.8% 120.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-killconfirmed?window=24h) | 1,765 | 94.97% ±24.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-killconfirmed?window=7d) | 2,930 | 99.12% ±19.1 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-killconfirmed) | 2,930 | 99.12% ±19.1 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-killconfirmed?window=all) | 2,930 | 99.12% ±19.1 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,301 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $66.09 | 39.5% | 17 | 16.5 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2.68 | 29.6% | 300 | 305.2 | 0.98× | | [USP-S \| Night Ops (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) | 14.3% | $1.33 | 22.7% | 507 | 471.5 | 1.08× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 76.0% | $0.09 | 8.2% | 2,477 | 2507.8 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/farm_killconfirmed/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $0.89 $66.09 74.26x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [кириешки](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B8) $0.89 $66.09 74.26x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [кириешки](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B8) $0.89 $66.09 74.26x 2026-11-10 21:20 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [./../](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/.%2F..%2F) $0.89 $66.09 74.26x 2026-11-10 21:09 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [кириешки](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B8) $0.89 $66.09 74.26x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [кириешки](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B5%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B8) $0.89 $66.09 74.26x 2026-11-10 20:10 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $0.89 $66.09 74.26x 2026-11-10 18:11 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $0.89 $66.09 74.26x 2026-11-10 18:10 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $0.89 $66.09 74.26x 2026-11-10 18:08 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [MNOGOOSOZNAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MNOGOOSOZNAL) $0.89 $66.09 74.26x 2026-11-10 13:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=farm-killconfirmed) [USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $0.89 $2.68 3.01x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.89 $1.33 1.49x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.89 $0.09 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.89 $0.09 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [S1n0X](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/S1n0X) $0.89 $0.09 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [S1n0X](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/S1n0X) $0.89 $0.09 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [🤑Roy run🤑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9F%A4%91Roy%20run%F0%9F%A4%91) $0.89 $0.09 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [🤑Roy run🤑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9F%A4%91Roy%20run%F0%9F%A4%91) $0.89 $0.09 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [🤑Roy run🤑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9F%A4%91Roy%20run%F0%9F%A4%91) $0.89 $0.09 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [🤑Roy run🤑](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9F%A4%91Roy%20run%F0%9F%A4%91) $0.89 $0.09 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $0.89 | 94.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% violet 9.2% mil spec 14.3% #4b69ff 76.0% best hit $66.09 (74.26x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt