--- title: "Farm m 4asiimov case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Farm m 4asiimov ($2.29) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 92.16% over 735 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-m4asiimov rendered: 2026-11-12T01:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Farm m 4asiimov](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-m4asiimov) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Farm m 4asiimov A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-m4asiimov?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-m4asiimov?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-m4asiimov) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-m4asiimov?window=all) Price · $2.29 Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $2.15 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.16% · 735 openings, odds method Variance · 30.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 107.36% ±64.56 283 openings 7 days · 92.16% ±40.06 735 openings 30 days · 92.16% ±40.06 735 openings since tracking started · 92.16% ±40.06 735 openings 42.0% 107.3% 172.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-m4asiimov?window=24h) | 283 | 107.36% ±64.6 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-m4asiimov?window=7d) | 735 | 92.16% ±40.1 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-m4asiimov) | 735 | 92.16% ±40.1 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-m4asiimov?window=all) | 735 | 92.16% ±40.1 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 776 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $179 | 41.5% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $7.29 | 27.9% | 71 | 63.9 | 1.11× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 13.1% | $3.60 | 21.9% | 107 | 101.7 | 1.05× | | [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) | 78.2% | $0.24 | 8.7% | 595 | 606.5 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/farm_m4asiimov/show`, 11 Nov, 22:43 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) [Shutup\_Rik](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Shutup_Rik) $2.29 $179 78.00x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) [BREEZY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BREEZY) $2.29 $179 78.00x 2026-11-11 04:07 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) [BREEZY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BREEZY) $2.29 $179 78.00x 2026-11-10 20:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=farm-m4asiimov) [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [Xorvell 3.12](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Xorvell%203.12) $2.29 $3.60 1.57x 2026-11-11 22:45 UTC [M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) [Xorvell 3.12](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Xorvell%203.12) $2.29 $0.24 0.10x 2026-11-11 22:45 UTC [M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) [Xorvell 3.12](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Xorvell%203.12) $2.29 $0.24 0.10x 2026-11-11 22:45 UTC [M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) [Xorvell 3.12](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Xorvell%203.12) $2.29 $0.24 0.10x 2026-11-11 22:45 UTC [M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) [Xorvell 3.12](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Xorvell%203.12) $2.29 $0.24 0.10x 2026-11-11 22:45 UTC [M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) [Nemzy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Nemzy) $2.29 $0.24 0.10x 2026-11-11 22:21 UTC [M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) [Яспер Муем](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%20%D0%9C%D1%83%D0%B5%D0%BC) $2.29 $0.24 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:36 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [()st)()](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%28%29st%29%28%29) $2.29 $3.60 1.57x 2026-11-11 21:20 UTC [M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) [DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DK) $2.29 $0.24 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:07 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [DK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DK) $2.29 $3.60 1.57x 2026-11-11 21:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $2.29 | 94.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% restricted 8.2% Legendary 13.1% Uncommon 78.2% best hit $179 (78.00x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt