--- title: "Farm medusa case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Farm medusa ($27.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 9.61% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-medusa rendered: 2026-11-11T21:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Farm medusa](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-medusa) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Farm medusa A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-medusa?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-medusa?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-medusa) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-medusa?window=all) Price · $27.99 Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $26.31 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 9.61% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 31.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 323.3% 647.0% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-medusa?window=24h) | 3 | 9.61% ±636.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-medusa?window=7d) | 8 | 9.61% ±390.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-medusa) | 8 | 9.61% ±390.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/farm-medusa?window=all) | 8 | 9.61% ±390.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $2,218 | 42.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $90.19 | 28.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 13.8% | $40.76 | 21.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 77.4% | $2.69 | 7.9% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.15× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/farm_medusa/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=farm-medusa) [AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) [DevertoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DevertoN) $27.99 $2.69 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) [Just A User Name](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Just%20A%20User%20Name) $27.99 $2.69 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) [Just A User Name](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Just%20A%20User%20Name) $27.99 $2.69 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) [SYBIROOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SYBIROOS) $27.99 $2.69 0.10x 2026-11-10 20:47 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) [SYBIROOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SYBIROOS) $27.99 $2.69 0.10x 2026-11-10 20:47 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) [Andrejka\_228](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Andrejka_228) $27.99 $2.69 0.10x 2026-11-10 15:24 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) [Sssssiiiiiiiuuuuuu!](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Sssssiiiiiiiuuuuuu!) $27.99 $2.69 0.10x 2026-11-10 05:47 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) [maw666](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/maw666) $27.99 $2.69 0.10x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) [lolryder](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/lolryder) $27.99 $90.19 3.22x 2026-11-09 16:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $27.99 | 94.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 14.3% classified 8.3% Mil Spec Grade 77.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt