---
title: "Fever case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fever ($3.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 35 items with odds, observed 92.98% over 287 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fever
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Fever](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fever)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Fever

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fever?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fever?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fever) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fever?window=all)

Price · $3.49

Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $3.17 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.98% · 287 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 13 openings · below min

7 days · 92.98% ±14.59 287 openings

30 days · 92.98% ±14.59 287 openings

since tracking started · 92.98% ±14.59 287 openings

8.0% 77.0% 146.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fever?window=24h) | 13 | 76.97% ±68.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fever?window=7d) | 287 | 92.98% ±14.6 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fever) | 287 | 92.98% ±14.6 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fever?window=all) | 287 | 92.98% ±14.6 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 376 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $509 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $357 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $251 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 55,556 | $160 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 23,810 | $120 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-factory-new) | 1 in 8,475 | $85.13 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,149 | $63.00 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 3,155 | $57.80 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 2,924 | $56.24 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 2,660 | $53.35 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,193 | $53.19 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 1,876 | $46.29 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,908 | $45.83 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-factory-new) | 1 in 137 | $18.04 | 4.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $16.19 | 4.3% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) | 1 in 99 | $14.15 | 4.5% | 8 | 3.8 | 2.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $7.71 | 6.7% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $6.59 | 7.6% | 18 | 13.8 | 1.30× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $5.82 | 9.1% | 23 | 18.7 | 1.23× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.75 | 10.5% | 27 | 26.4 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $4.62 | 11.8% | 30 | 30.5 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $4.53 | 9.7% | 22 | 25.6 | 0.86× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.97 | 4.6% | 14 | 18.4 | 0.76× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.79 | 4.3% | 14 | 18.4 | 0.76× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.16 | 3.3% | 18 | 18.4 | 0.98× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.50 | 2.3% | 15 | 18.4 | 0.81× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.45 | 2.2% | 21 | 18.4 | 1.14× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.14 | 1.8% | 14 | 18.4 | 0.76× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.95 | 1.5% | 18 | 18.4 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Memorial (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.86 | 1.3% | 25 | 18.4 | 1.36× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.79 | 1.2% | 24 | 18.4 | 1.30× |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.67 | 1.0% | 18 | 18.4 | 0.98× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.63 | 1.0% | 18 | 18.4 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.51 | 0.8% | 17 | 18.4 | 0.92× |
| [MAG-7 \| Resupply (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.49 | 0.8% | 17 | 18.4 | 0.92× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/fever/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=fever)

[MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-factory-new) [QQHA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/QQHA) $3.49 $0.49 0.14x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $3.49 $4.75 1.36x 2026-11-11 09:37 UTC

[Galil AR | Control (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-factory-new) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $3.49 $2.16 0.62x 2026-11-11 09:37 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $3.49 $4.75 1.36x 2026-11-11 09:37 UTC

[SSG 08 | Memorial (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-factory-new) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $3.49 $0.86 0.25x 2026-11-11 09:37 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $3.49 $1.45 0.42x 2026-11-11 09:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $3.49 $4.53 1.30x 2026-11-11 09:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $3.49 $4.53 1.30x 2026-11-10 19:48 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $3.49 $0.79 0.23x 2026-11-10 19:48 UTC

[Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $3.49 $2.97 0.85x 2026-11-10 19:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $3.49 | 90.93% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.49 | 94.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.0% gold 0.0% Ancient 0.1% red 0.0% covert knife 0.0% Covert 0.0% uncommon 5.0% rare 0.7% pink 22.2% Legendary 13.0% Mythical 14.7% restricted 4.9% blue 9.8% #4b69ff 4.9% Rare 9.8% #8847ff 4.9% violet 4.9% milspec 4.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt