---
title: "Fireworks case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fireworks ($3.65) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.87% from 42 items with odds, observed 90.10% over 234 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fireworks
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Fireworks](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fireworks)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Fireworks

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fireworks?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fireworks?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fireworks) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fireworks?window=all)

Price · $3.65

Advertised RTP · 93.87% · EV $3.43 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.10% · 234 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 51.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 61 openings · below min

30 days · 90.10% ±26.02 234 openings

since tracking started · 90.10% ±26.02 234 openings

-0.5% 254.8% 510.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fireworks?window=24h) | 1 | 120.00% ±389.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fireworks?window=7d) | 61 | 93.69% ±51.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fireworks) | 234 | 90.10% ±26.0 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fireworks?window=all) | 234 | 90.10% ±26.0 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 234 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,286 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,949 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,732 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,695 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,331 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,216 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $848 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 500,000 | $602 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $464 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $387 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $208 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $124 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-well-worn) | 1 in 12,346 | $77.77 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,929 | $67.17 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) | 1 in 2,132 | $47.21 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 216 | $17.23 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 135 | $11.80 | 2.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 98 | $10.72 | 3.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 103 | $10.15 | 2.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $8.52 | 3.5% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.23× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $7.61 | 4.0% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $6.77 | 3.3% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.29× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $6.60 | 4.0% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $5.37 | 4.6% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $5.18 | 5.1% | 8 | 7.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $5.09 | 4.9% | 9 | 7.7 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $4.95 | 5.1% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.72× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $4.38 | 5.4% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $4.09 | 5.7% | 7 | 11.2 | 0.62× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $3.97 | 6.5% | 16 | 13.1 | 1.22× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $3.82 | 5.5% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.96× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $3.69 | 6.1% | 16 | 13.3 | 1.21× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $3.58 | 5.9% | 18 | 13.3 | 1.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $3.07 | 5.0% | 15 | 13.1 | 1.14× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.73 | 4.4% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $1.63 | 2.5% | 9 | 12.4 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.24 | 1.9% | 10 | 12.2 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $0.95 | 1.4% | 10 | 12.0 | 0.83× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.56 | 0.8% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.45 | 0.6% | 16 | 11.2 | 1.43× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $0.39 | 0.5% | 15 | 10.9 | 1.37× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.35 | 0.5% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.82× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/fireworks/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=fireworks)

[AUG | Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) [Volchonok052](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Volchonok052) $3.65 $4.38 1.20x 2026-11-10 17:24 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.54 $3.69 1.04x 2026-11-05 18:43 UTC

[AUG | Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.54 $4.38 1.24x 2026-11-05 18:43 UTC

[AWP | Exoskeleton (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-well-worn) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.54 $3.82 1.08x 2026-11-05 18:43 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.54 $0.56 0.16x 2026-11-05 15:33 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.54 $0.56 0.16x 2026-11-05 15:33 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.54 $6.60 1.86x 2026-11-05 15:33 UTC

[SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.54 $8.52 2.41x 2026-11-05 15:32 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.54 $0.45 0.13x 2026-11-05 15:32 UTC

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $3.54 $0.35 0.10x 2026-11-05 15:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.65 | 93.87% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.54 | 96.78% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.54 | 94.91% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% legendary 0.0% Covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% sunny 0.0% classified 6.0% restricted 5.7% red 0.0% rare 0.0% pink 18.5% Restricted 1.0% Mythical 12.6% #d32ee6 7.2% #8847ff 14.3% violet 14.8% milspec 5.6% mil spec 4.9% Rare 4.8% #5e98d9 4.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.87 on average: an expected loss of $6.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt