---
title: "Flip case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Flip ($159.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.42% from 29 items with odds, observed 134.44% over 4 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/flip
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Flip](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/flip)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Flip

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/flip?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/flip?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/flip) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/flip?window=all)

Price · $159.99

Advertised RTP · 92.42% · EV $147.87 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 134.44% · 4 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 38.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 4 openings · below min

30 days · 4 openings · below min

since tracking started · 4 openings · below min

92.0% 168.0% 244.0%

**Small sample.** 4 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/flip?window=24h) | 2 | 185.13% ±58.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/flip?window=7d) | 4 | 134.44% ±41.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/flip) | 4 | 134.44% ±41.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/flip?window=all) | 4 | 134.44% ±41.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 6,329 | $1,676 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 7,692 | $1,502 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 4,464 | $1,150 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,818 | $895 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 707 | $716 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 313 | $477 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 272 | $465 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 171 | $381 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 122 | $343 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $316 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $270 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $219 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $217 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $194 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $193 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $169 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $160 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $144 | 6.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $133 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $132 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $128 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $127 | 5.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $124 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $124 | 5.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $122 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $112 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $106 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $106 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $105 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/flip/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=flip)

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $160 $465 2.91x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) [11](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/11) $160 $127 0.80x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) [Eggshka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Eggshka) $160 $124 0.77x 2026-11-09 11:02 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $160 $144 0.90x 2026-11-06 15:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $160 | 92.42% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $160 | 94.00% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 74.3% covert knife 12.4% sunny 1.1% #ffd700 6.1% Covert 6.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.42 on average: an expected loss of $7.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt