--- title: "Forbes case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Forbes ($830.68) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.07% from 22 items with odds, observed 86.97% over 922 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/forbes rendered: 2026-11-11T13:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Forbes](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/forbes) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Forbes A case on CSGORUN (vipcases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/forbes?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/forbes?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/forbes) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/forbes?window=all) Price · $830.68 Advertised RTP · 91.07% · EV $756.47 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.97% · 922 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 7 openings · below min 7 days · 86.97% ±7.05 922 openings 30 days · 86.97% ±7.05 922 openings since tracking started · 86.97% ±7.05 922 openings 32.0% 113.5% 195.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/forbes?window=24h) | 7 | 113.57% ±80.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/forbes?window=7d) | 922 | 86.97% ±7.05 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/forbes) | 922 | 86.97% ±7.05 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/forbes?window=all) | 922 | 86.97% ±7.05 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 922 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 708 | $8,093 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 776 | $7,653 | 1.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.68× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 429 | $6,856 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.47× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 295 | $5,745 | 2.6% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.60× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 142 | $4,349 | 4.1% | 2 | 6.5 | 0.31× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 122 | $4,251 | 4.6% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.32× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $2,370 | 6.1% | 13 | 17.9 | 0.73× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $2,122 | 6.8% | 21 | 22.5 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,888 | 7.5% | 31 | 27.6 | 1.12× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $1,780 | 6.9% | 23 | 26.9 | 0.85× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,284 | 8.5% | 38 | 46.2 | 0.82× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1,260 | 9.1% | 56 | 50.3 | 1.11× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 10.4% | $665 | 9.2% | 90 | 96.1 | 0.94× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $532 | 6.7% | 79 | 88.0 | 0.90× | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $496 | 6.0% | 88 | 84.3 | 1.04× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 12 | $454 | 5.2% | 83 | 79.7 | 1.04× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 13 | $343 | 3.6% | 76 | 72.3 | 1.05× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $258 | 2.4% | 57 | 65.3 | 0.87× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $217 | 1.9% | 69 | 59.7 | 1.16× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $205 | 1.8% | 68 | 60.0 | 1.13× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $165 | 1.3% | 53 | 54.2 | 0.98× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $142 | 1.0% | 57 | 49.1 | 1.16× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/forbes/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [gogi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/gogi) $831 $7,653 9.21x 2026-11-06 12:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $831 $7,653 9.21x 2026-11-05 19:05 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $831 $6,856 8.25x 2026-11-07 04:52 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $831 $5,745 6.92x 2026-11-07 01:25 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [gogi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/gogi) $831 $5,745 6.92x 2026-11-06 17:08 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [gogi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/gogi) $831 $5,745 6.92x 2026-11-06 12:19 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [gogi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/gogi) $831 $5,745 6.92x 2026-11-06 12:19 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [gogi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/gogi) $831 $5,745 6.92x 2026-11-06 12:18 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [gogi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/gogi) $831 $4,349 5.24x 2026-11-06 12:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [gogi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/gogi) $831 $4,349 5.24x 2026-11-06 12:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=forbes) [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $831 $454 0.55x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $831 $496 0.60x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $831 $205 0.25x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [?#](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3F%23) $831 $496 0.60x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $831 $4,251 5.12x 2026-11-10 17:24 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $831 $205 0.25x 2026-11-10 17:11 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $831 $496 0.60x 2026-11-10 17:11 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $831 $343 0.41x 2026-11-09 18:44 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $831 $665 0.80x 2026-11-09 18:41 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $831 $217 0.26x 2026-11-09 18:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $831 | 91.07% | 22 | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $831 | 92.63% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 56.0% contraband 0.3% sunny 2.4% legendary 2.9% classified 5.0% extraordinary 18.4% gold 9.5% covert knife 5.3% best hit $7,653 (9.21x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.07 on average: an expected loss of $8.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt