--- title: "Fracture case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fracture ($2.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.32% from 36 items with odds, observed 88.41% over 147 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fracture rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Fracture](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fracture) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Fracture A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fracture?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fracture?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fracture) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fracture?window=all) Price · $2.49 Advertised RTP · 91.32% · EV $2.27 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.41% · 147 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 88.41% ±20.78 147 openings 30 days · 88.41% ±20.78 147 openings since tracking started · 88.41% ±20.78 147 openings -0.5% 86.5% 173.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fracture?window=24h) | 8 | 83.68% ±89.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fracture?window=7d) | 147 | 88.41% ±20.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fracture) | 147 | 88.41% ±20.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/fracture?window=all) | 147 | 88.41% ±20.8 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 276 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $375 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $263 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71,429 | $165 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40,000 | $123 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17,241 | $86.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,897 | $59.10 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,759 | $46.12 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 2,985 | $42.78 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 3,058 | $42.22 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 2,915 | $41.95 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,901 | $36.49 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 1,799 | $35.43 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,953 | $35.20 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 129 | $11.48 | 3.9% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.40× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $10.12 | 4.2% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.90× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $5.45 | 5.7% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× | | [XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $5.38 | 6.1% | 2 | 7.1 | 0.28× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $5.37 | 6.5% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.06× | | [XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $3.80 | 6.9% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.88× | | [XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $3.74 | 7.2% | 12 | 12.1 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $3.67 | 6.6% | 8 | 11.3 | 0.71× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $3.60 | 6.7% | 14 | 11.6 | 1.20× | | [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $2.77 | 8.5% | 18 | 19.2 | 0.94× | | [MAC-10 \| Allure (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $2.39 | 8.7% | 22 | 22.8 | 0.96× | | [Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $2.09 | 4.5% | 9 | 13.4 | 0.67× | | [Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $1.78 | 3.8% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× | | [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $1.63 | 3.5% | 15 | 13.4 | 1.12× | | [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.89 | 1.9% | 16 | 13.4 | 1.19× | | [Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.71 | 1.5% | 15 | 13.4 | 1.12× | | [MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.70 | 1.5% | 22 | 13.4 | 1.64× | | [Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.67 | 1.4% | 11 | 13.4 | 0.82× | | [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.56 | 1.2% | 14 | 13.4 | 1.04× | | [PP-Bizon \| Runic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.54 | 1.2% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× | | [P90 \| Freight (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.49 | 1.0% | 18 | 13.4 | 1.34× | | [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.44 | 0.9% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× | | [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.37 | 0.8% | 9 | 13.4 | 0.67× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/fracture/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=fracture) [MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) [QQHA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/QQHA) $2.49 $0.89 0.36x 2026-11-11 11:15 UTC [MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $2.49 $1.63 0.65x 2026-11-11 08:56 UTC [Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $2.49 $0.44 0.18x 2026-11-11 08:56 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $2.49 $3.60 1.45x 2026-11-11 08:55 UTC [XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-factory-new) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $2.49 $5.38 2.16x 2026-11-11 08:55 UTC [MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $1.63 0.65x 2026-11-10 19:47 UTC [MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $2.39 0.96x 2026-11-10 19:47 UTC [Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $2.49 $0.71 0.29x 2026-11-10 19:47 UTC [MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) [Toni Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Toni%20Montana) $2.49 $0.89 0.36x 2026-11-10 10:27 UTC [MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) [Toni Montana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Toni%20Montana) $2.49 $0.89 0.36x 2026-11-10 10:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.49 | 91.32% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.49 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% covert knife 0.1% Ancient 0.1% Legendary 19.1% #d32ee6 2.7% pink 4.4% Restricted 6.9% Mythical 18.0% violet 24.3% #8847ff 9.7% milspec 4.9% #4b69ff 4.9% Rare 4.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.32 on average: an expected loss of $8.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt