---
title: "Freecase case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Freecase ($0.12) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.18% from 17 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Freecase](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Freecase

A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase?window=all)

Price · $0.12

Advertised RTP · 88.18% · EV $0.11 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 122.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 99.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 3,534 | $62.50 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 3,012 | $44.82 | 14.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.11 | 9.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.10 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Hydro Wave sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hydro-wave) | 1 in 11 | $0.10 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.09 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) | 1 in 11 | $0.09 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Kilowatt Case container · Case](https://gambatracker.com/items/kilowatt-case) | 1 in 11 | $0.08 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.08 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.07 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.06 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.06 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.03 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-copper-fiber-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.03 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Facility Sketch (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-facility-sketch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.03 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.03 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Commando Company (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/freecase/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=freecase)

[Sticker | Hydro Wave sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hydro-wave) [❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9D%A4) $0.12 $0.10 0.83x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

[Sticker | Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) [Влад Смирнов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%20%D0%A1%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.12 $0.09 0.75x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) [anna\_davis80](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/anna_davis80) $0.12 $0.11 0.92x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) [anna\_davis80](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/anna_davis80) $0.12 $0.11 0.92x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[Sticker | Hydro Wave sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hydro-wave) [Amirbinkuten \[︻デ 一一\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Amirbinkuten%20%5B%EF%B8%BB%E3%83%87%20%E4%B8%80%E4%B8%80%5D) $0.12 $0.10 0.83x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[Sticker | Hydro Wave sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hydro-wave) [timothy7867](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/timothy7867) $0.12 $0.10 0.83x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [timothy7867](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/timothy7867) $0.12 $0.08 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [joshua4179](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joshua4179) $0.12 $0.08 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[Kilowatt Case container · Case](https://gambatracker.com/items/kilowatt-case) [joshua4179](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/joshua4179) $0.12 $0.08 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [sagit\_ov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/sagit_ov) $0.12 $0.08 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.12 | 88.18% | 17 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.12 | 94.18% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% red 0.0% Uncommon 29.6% light blue 7.5% blue 9.0% #b0c3d9 8.1% #4b69ff 8.9% Case 8.9% industrial 7.5% #87c7ff 5.0% Common 3.9% #5e98d9 3.9% consumer 3.9% common 3.8%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.18 on average: an expected loss of $11.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt