---
title: "Freecase 1 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Freecase 1 ($0.20) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 47.60% from 21 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase1
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Freecase 1](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase1)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Freecase 1

A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase1?window=all)

Price · $0.20

Advertised RTP · 47.60% · EV $0.10 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase1?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase1?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase1) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase1?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $4.27 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $3.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-well-worn) | 1 in 40,000 | $2.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $2.91 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $2.53 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-field-tested) | 1 in 1,333 | $2.28 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,538 | $1.91 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $1.85 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $1.79 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $1.00 | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $0.76 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $0.56 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coral-halftone-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $0.40 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.17 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.16 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Wildwood (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-wildwood-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.14 | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Gnarled (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-gnarled-well-worn) | 11.8% | $0.12 | 14.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.07 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) | 13.8% | $0.05 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-minimal-wear) | 21.0% | $0.04 | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| ZywOo \| Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zywoo-shanghai-2024) | 27.0% | $0.02 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/freecase1/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=freecase1)

[FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-minimal-wear) [qwezxxc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/qwezxxc) $0.20 $0.04 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) [qwezxxc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/qwezxxc) $0.20 $0.05 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC

[FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-minimal-wear) [al0ne\_mode](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/al0ne_mode) $0.20 $0.04 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.20 $0.05 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-minimal-wear) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.20 $0.04 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sticker | ZywOo | Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zywoo-shanghai-2024) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.20 $0.02 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-gnarled-well-worn) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.20 $0.12 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sticker | ZywOo | Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zywoo-shanghai-2024) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.20 $0.02 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sticker | ZywOo | Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zywoo-shanghai-2024) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.20 $0.02 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sticker | ZywOo | Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zywoo-shanghai-2024) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.20 $0.02 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.20 | 47.60% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 1.2% pink 0.0% #8847ff 0.3% Mil Spec Grade 0.0% Rare 27.2% blue 0.7% industrial 38.1% Uncommon 17.8% common 3.0% milspec 11.8%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 47.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $47.60 on average: an expected loss of $52.40 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt