---
title: "Freecase 10 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Freecase 10 ($240.07) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 70.32% from 21 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase10
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Freecase 10](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase10)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Freecase 10

A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase10?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase10?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase10) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase10?window=all)

Price · $240.07

Advertised RTP · 70.32% · EV $168.81 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase10?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase10?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase10) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase10?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,394 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40,000 | $1,246 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $911 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 148 | $848 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $842 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 299 | $816 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 1,770 | $767 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $711 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $569 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $459 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $307 | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $257 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $252 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $249 | 11.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $208 | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $178 | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $172 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 11.2% | $83.95 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $54.98 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 11.1% | $38.41 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 13.7% | $34.41 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/freecase10/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=freecase10)

[★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-well-worn) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $240 $257 1.07x 2026-11-07 18:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) [RUD1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/RUD1) $240 $208 0.86x 2026-11-06 10:32 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) [Hayasaki Tashiguro](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Hayasaki%20Tashiguro) $240 $38.41 0.16x 2026-11-06 10:16 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $240 | 70.32% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $240 | 70.29% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 53.2% extraordinary 0.0% sunny 0.8% epic 6.3% gold 2.0% #eb4b4b 4.2% classified 19.7% Ancient 13.7%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 70.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $70.32 on average: an expected loss of $29.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt