---
title: "Freecase 2 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Freecase 2 ($0.52) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 59.22% from 21 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Freecase 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase2)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Freecase 2

A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase2?window=all)

Price · $0.52

Advertised RTP · 59.22% · EV $0.31 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase2?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase2) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase2?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $14.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-well-worn) | 1 in 25,000 | $9.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16,667 | $7.77 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40,000 | $7.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11,111 | $5.41 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $4.10 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-battle-scarred) | 1 in 154 | $3.90 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $2.68 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $2.01 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $1.32 | 11.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $1.04 | 11.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.86 | 10.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $0.58 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) | 11.8% | $0.32 | 12.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.31 | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.28 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Small Game (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-small-game-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.24 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.17 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Astrolabe (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-astrolabe-field-tested) | 12.6% | $0.14 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Motorized (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-motorized-field-tested) | 13.5% | $0.07 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-field-tested) | 21.0% | $0.06 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/freecase2/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=freecase2)

[MP7 | Astrolabe (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-astrolabe-field-tested) [стоять на голове](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%8F%D1%82%D1%8C%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%20%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B5) $0.52 $0.14 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.52 $0.32 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.52 $0.32 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-field-tested) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.52 $0.06 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[MP7 | Astrolabe (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-astrolabe-field-tested) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.52 $0.14 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-motorized-field-tested) [Akt1melqa™](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Akt1melqa%E2%84%A2) $0.52 $0.07 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) [satana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/satana) $0.52 $0.86 1.65x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-motorized-field-tested) [satana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/satana) $0.52 $0.07 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[MP7 | Astrolabe (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-astrolabe-field-tested) [satana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/satana) $0.52 $0.14 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-motorized-field-tested) [satana](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/satana) $0.52 $0.07 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.52 | 59.22% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.52 | 57.72% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 5.6% classified 0.0% restricted 2.8% Classified 0.0% pink 0.0% violet 4.5% Mythical 1.0% Rare 3.3% #8847ff 1.4% #4b69ff 43.0% industrial 17.5% Uncommon 21.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 59.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $59.22 on average: an expected loss of $40.78 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt