---
title: "Freecase 3 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Freecase 3 ($1.18) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 56.66% from 21 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase3
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Freecase 3](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase3)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Freecase 3

A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase3?window=all)

Price · $1.18

Advertised RTP · 56.66% · EV $0.67 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase3?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase3?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase3) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase3?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $27.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 1 in 40,000 | $22.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 22,222 | $20.36 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 11,111 | $14.44 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $13.56 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,010 | $11.94 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 220 | $8.11 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 408 | $7.81 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $6.18 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $2.27 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $1.97 | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Bronze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-bronze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $1.83 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $1.53 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $1.30 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $1.04 | 15.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.56 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.51 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-27-field-tested) | 13.7% | $0.46 | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) | 13.7% | $0.35 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.31 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) | 19.7% | $0.06 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/freecase3/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=freecase3)

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) [van](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/van) $1.18 $0.35 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) [пиу пиу](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BF%D0%B8%D1%83%20%D0%BF%D0%B8%D1%83) $1.18 $0.35 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) [ViiNC](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ViiNC) $1.18 $1.04 0.88x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) [GONZOлик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GONZO%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $1.18 $0.35 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-minimal-wear) [jod517](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/jod517) $1.18 $0.56 0.47x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-minimal-wear) [lov attitude](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/lov%20attitude) $1.18 $0.51 0.43x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $1.18 $0.06 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $1.18 $0.06 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $1.18 $0.31 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $1.18 $0.35 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.18 | 56.66% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.18 | 56.85% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% mil spec 0.0% classified 0.9% pink 0.3% #d32ce6 0.1% restricted 3.2% violet 14.6% Mil Spec 3.3% Uncommon 21.4% #8847ff 2.8% Rare 15.3% milspec 22.3% #4b69ff 16.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 56.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $56.66 on average: an expected loss of $43.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt