---
title: "Freecase 4 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Freecase 4 ($3.13) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.02% from 21 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase4
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Freecase 4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase4)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Freecase 4

A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase4?window=all)

Price · $3.13

Advertised RTP · 74.02% · EV $2.32 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase4?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase4?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase4) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase4?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $73.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $69.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 25,000 | $53.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $43.01 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12,500 | $39.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-well-worn) | 1 in 1,176 | $38.56 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 408 | $23.71 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 103 | $9.75 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $9.46 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Hive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $6.34 | 15.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $5.93 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 1 in 147 | $5.76 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $4.72 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $3.77 | 13.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $3.54 | 11.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $2.70 | 10.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 11.8% | $2.38 | 12.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $2.25 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 13.9% | $0.97 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.60 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-battle-scarred) | 20.3% | $0.41 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/freecase4/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=freecase4)

[R8 Revolver | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-minimal-wear) [ipadkid](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ipadkid) $3.13 $2.70 0.86x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Tosai (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-battle-scarred) [ipadkid](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ipadkid) $3.13 $0.41 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC

[SG 553 | Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) [csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/csgorun) $3.13 $3.54 1.13x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Hive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-hive-factory-new) [love alice](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/love%20alice) $3.13 $6.34 2.03x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Tosai (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-battle-scarred) [стоять на голове](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%8F%D1%82%D1%8C%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%20%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B5) $3.13 $0.41 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Tosai (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-battle-scarred) [✪︎ TUNg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9C%AA%EF%B8%8E%20TUNg) $3.13 $0.41 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:24 UTC

[XM1014 | XOXO (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-field-tested) [2K\_chervyak](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/2K_chervyak) $3.13 $3.77 1.20x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) [qwezxxc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/qwezxxc) $3.13 $0.97 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Hive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-hive-factory-new) [al0ne\_mode](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/al0ne_mode) $3.13 $6.34 2.03x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Hive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-hive-factory-new) [Шойгу Z V](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A8%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%B3%D1%83%20Z%20V) $3.13 $6.34 2.03x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.13 | 74.02% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.13 | 74.80% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 3.5% Legendary 8.3% Mythical 14.0% mil spec 9.6% #4b69ff 5.8% Classified 1.4% #8847ff 0.7% pink 7.2% restricted 25.7% uncommon 3.6% violet 20.3%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.02 on average: an expected loss of $25.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt