---
title: "Freecase 5 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Freecase 5 ($5.58) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 70.73% from 21 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase5
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Freecase 5](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase5)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Freecase 5

A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase5?window=all)

Price · $5.58

Advertised RTP · 70.73% · EV $3.95 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase5?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase5?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase5) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase5?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $108 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 40,000 | $90.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $57.62 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $56.07 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25,000 | $45.70 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-well-worn) | 1 in 238 | $38.56 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Battle-Scarred) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $38.42 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 172 | $35.74 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 351 | $26.40 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $19.60 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-battle-scarred) | 1 in 156 | $16.24 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $16.22 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $13.48 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $10.71 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $9.53 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $6.24 | 11.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 13.0% | $3.80 | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $2.56 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) | 19.0% | $1.83 | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 13.4% | $1.63 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 26.3% | $1.54 | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/freecase5/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=freecase5)

[P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) [lil\_yeati](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/lil_yeati) $5.58 $1.83 0.33x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-well-worn) [Толя Клочихин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8F%20%D0%9A%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%B8%D1%85%D0%B8%D0%BD) $5.58 $1.54 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-well-worn) [оЛЯ,С4](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BE%D0%9B%D0%AF%2C%D0%A14) $5.58 $1.54 0.28x 2026-11-11 09:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-well-worn) [Romen4](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Romen4) $5.58 $1.54 0.28x 2026-11-11 09:16 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) [Saleen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Saleen) $5.58 $3.80 0.68x 2026-11-11 08:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-well-worn) [папье маше](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%8C%D0%B5%20%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%B5) $5.58 $1.54 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:09 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) [Youngmon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Youngmon) $5.58 $2.56 0.46x 2026-11-11 06:39 UTC

[P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) [Youngmon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Youngmon) $5.58 $1.83 0.33x 2026-11-11 04:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-well-worn) [MuradovTA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MuradovTA) $5.58 $1.54 0.28x 2026-11-10 21:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-well-worn) [♥Красное&Белое♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%99%A5%D0%9A%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B5%26%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B5%E2%99%A5) $5.58 $1.54 0.28x 2026-11-10 20:29 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.58 | 70.73% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.58 | 71.61% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% classified 17.3% red 0.0% covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% Extraordinary 0.1% Classified 0.6% pink 17.9% Mythical 2.3% #4B69FF 3.0% restricted 45.3% #8847ff 13.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 70.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $70.73 on average: an expected loss of $29.27 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt