---
title: "Freecase 6 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Freecase 6 ($9.33) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 62.51% from 21 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase6
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Freecase 6](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase6)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Freecase 6

A case on CSGORUN (freecases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase6?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase6?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase6) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase6?window=all)

Price · $9.33

Advertised RTP · 62.51% · EV $5.83 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase6?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase6?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase6) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/freecase6?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $208 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $125 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife) | 1 in 11,111 | $120 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,632 | $84.25 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 1,053 | $58.63 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 426 | $52.30 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 215 | $43.10 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $42.16 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $22.60 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $19.60 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $16.64 | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $16.24 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $10.68 | 14.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $10.13 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.73 | 13.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-blue-fissure-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $6.75 | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $4.28 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) | 12.5% | $3.60 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Statics (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-statics-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1.28 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) | 15.6% | $0.59 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $0.56 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/freecase6/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=freecase6)

[M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) [Sladkiy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Sladkiy) $9.33 $0.59 0.06x 2026-11-10 07:01 UTC

[M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) [Maz1lla](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Maz1lla) $9.33 $0.59 0.06x 2026-11-09 18:19 UTC

[MP5-SD | Statics (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-statics-factory-new) [Скайт swageek OPPSPOTTER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A1%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B9%D1%82%20swageek%20OPPSPOTTER) $9.33 $1.28 0.14x 2026-11-08 12:55 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) [My way is your death](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/My%20way%20is%20your%20death) $9.33 $7.73 0.83x 2026-11-08 02:09 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) [darkcell](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/darkcell) $9.33 $4.28 0.46x 2026-11-08 00:19 UTC

[M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) [darkcell](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/darkcell) $9.33 $0.59 0.06x 2026-11-08 00:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) [amore](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/amore) $9.33 $10.13 1.09x 2026-11-07 23:19 UTC

[M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) [кетаминовые сны](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B5%20%D1%81%D0%BD%D1%8B) $9.33 $0.59 0.06x 2026-11-07 18:57 UTC

[M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) [кетаминовые сны](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B5%20%D1%81%D0%BD%D1%8B) $9.33 $0.59 0.06x 2026-11-07 18:57 UTC

[M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) [кетаминовые сны](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B5%20%D1%81%D0%BD%D1%8B) $9.33 $0.59 0.06x 2026-11-07 18:57 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $9.33 | 62.51% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.33 | 63.21% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 10.4% extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.0% other 0.0% gold 0.7% Classified 0.9% pink 2.5% blue 2.9% restricted 3.5% mil spec 10.0% milspec 21.0% rare 5.9% #8847ff 12.5% violet 15.6% Rare 14.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 62.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $62.51 on average: an expected loss of $37.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt